19th December 2018

After the completion of 6 months of Governor Rule on 19th December 2018, the President’s rule was imposed in Jammu and Kashmir. This day took us in a situation which erupted in our state two decades back. With this shift now, the whole administrative system of the state is completely in the hands of the central government which since then has been running the state of Jammu and Kashmir. In the last 6 months, many things changed in Jammu and Kashmir after the Governor Satya Pal Malik took over the reins of the state. The Governor started very slowly but before the end of his six month period he completely has shaken up the system of Jammu and Kashmir. For many people in the state, the rule of Satya Pal Malik came as a blessing in disguise as many of the works which were struck for many years started rolling and even moved very fast. For this particular segment of the society, the Governor’s rule was a better system and they didn’t miss the presence of ministers and MLA’s.

It is pertinent to mention here that one of the biggest achievements of the present Governor was that he announced local body polls and even conducted them very successfully. Although the National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) boycotted these elections and thought that it may give them political mileage, I think they somewhere lost out on this idea as BJP all because of their boycott was able to win even in the Kashmir region. Ever since these polls were over I felt that entirely new political stakeholders have taken the ground in Jammu and Kashmir. However, the eruption of this new political process was not sudden and also not so smooth because it brought with it various rapid changes. The PDP is the biggest sufferer of this new system as it has lost big political ground in Kashmir region amid desertions and rebellious behaviour of its leaders.  Many may agree with me that NC has also suffered in Kashmir with this new emerging political set up. But NC is now compensating its lost ground by getting leaders from PDP, Congress and BJP to join NC in Kashmir as well as in Jammu. 

The rise of Sajjad Lone in Kashmir politics is one of the factors which have dented the political space of all regional parties and even mainstream parties like Congress, which now has to face a new opposition in the region. Besides, the Jammu region could not stay aloof from new political changes under the Governor Satya Pal Malik. Various newly formed social organizations here are actively playing communal and regional cards to instigate the masses to derive political mileage in upcoming elections next year. The Kashmir based parties don’t have much stake in Jammu but the BJP and Congress have to fight it out in upcoming elections for their political survival. In Jammu, both the Congress and BJP are thrilled with results of local bodies’ elections and are sure to form the next government in the state on their own. Also, the Ladakh region was not reluctant to the ongoing changes and it too has deserted the BJP. And now the Ladakhis have started raising their political demands independently, the latest result of which is that they have recently succeeded in getting a university for their region. Moreover, the people there are now shifting from the earlier demand of UT status for Ladakh and are demanding trifurcation of the state (like Jammuites)  in order to find a solution to the problems of Ladakh region.

The year 2108 is leaving behind so many changes in the state and importantly all the political parties here are on a bad knee amid the ongoing political crisis. In the past 4 years, we witnessed a very high kind of polarization in the whole of Jammu and Kashmir. Interestingly, this polarization was not just on the lines of region but also on the lines of religion. I think it will be very difficult for the next government in Jammu and Kashmir to bridge this prevailing level of polarization soon. Although the Governor dissolved the assembly by citing horse trading, a major role has to be played by the political parties in the state (who are interested in political stability) to safeguard the future of the state. Much more will come once the assembly elections are declared in Jammu and Kashmir and if not declared then the President’s rule may extend as per the needs of the new government in New Delhi.

Hit Or Miss Situation

Since 2014, Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has seen tremendous rise in Jammu and Kashmir.  Following the 2014 assembly victory in the state, the BJP has again turned victorious in just concluded urban local bodies elections by winning a record number of municipal councils and committees. In these elections the BJP has been able to even register victory in the Kashmir region. An impressive show was put up by the party in Jammu Municipal Corporation (JMC) by getting its corporators elected for the posts of Mayor and Deputy Mayor. Although the independent corporators and congress corporators joined hands in JMC to challenge the BJP but were left behind. At the moment, BJP has a maximum number of chairpersons and vice chairpersons across the state in various municipal councils and committees. However, BJP even saw few defeats (doda, udhampur, kathua and leh municipalities) which have been ignored and managed to be shown as a BJP mandate all over. With upcoming Lok sabha elections, these defeats may impact the plans of BJP in the state. Indeed, BJP has also suffered a major setback in Ladakh after its MP from Ladakh, Thupstan Chhewang, resigned from the party as well from the parliament. These all situations suggest that on ground Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not a priority for some of the voters.

Last week, the nine-phased panchayat polls began in the state amid the boycott of National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). These elections are being taken on a high note as it will lead to revival of grass root democracy in the state.  Infact, the rural voters turned up in large numbers in two phases of panchayat polls. Even for maintaining peace in both regions during this election season the government is taking several steps but still there are major law and order problems which now and then are erupting in both the regions. I feel on one side steps are being taken for revival of grass root democracy and on the other side law and order problems are increasing with every passing day in the state. Firstly, the killings of BJP leader Anil Parihar and his brother Ajeet Parihar in Kishtwar district disturbed the social atmosphere in Kishtwar and Doda. I believe both these killings in the Jammu region were done to create communal tension in the region. Such was the level of anger in people of Kishtwar on these killings that Union Minister and sitting MP from the constituency Dr Jitendra Singh was 'heckled' by angry mourners after the cremation of Parihar brothers. Secondly, the kidnappings and killing of young boys last week in Kashmir region has sent shock waves across the state. The video of execution of one of the young boys has also gone viral on social media. These incidents have further deteriorated the already strained situation in Kashmir. 

For me there are some more strange things which are happening in the political circles here. In Jammu region, BJP is finding its victories amid falling vote percentage and in Kashmir, the NC’s and PDP’s boycott of the elections is providing space to Peoples Conference (PC). Such are the speculations after the growth of PC led by Sajjad Lone in the last four years (with the support of BJP) that he is being predicted as the next chief minister in Jammu and Kashmir. BJP after having partnered with both NC and PDP now appears to create another political alternative in Kashmir while also trying to save itself in Jammu region. Therefore, I think the performance of PC in next elections will determine the fate of many in the electoral politics of the state. The latest step taken by the Governor to dissolve the assembly appears to show that the political fight has turned very nasty in the state. I remember very well how in the opening days the targets or priorities for settling the Kashmir issue and politically empowering Jammu were put up by the BJP but nothing could be achieved in the last 4 years. Despite all these accusations, the BJP state president Ravinder Raina is hopeful to win over 50 assembly seats in next elections. These all things and situations happening in the state are extraordinary and only time will tell for whom it becomes a hit or miss situation.

Results On An Unexpected Line

The results of the municipal elections, which took place in Jammu and Kashmir after 13 years, have set a record of its own kind in the politics of state. For me these elections couldn’t live up to the desired intentions as it generated a lot of negativity. Adding to the controversy was the prediction of a foreign-educated person getting appointed as the next mayor of Srinagar. Immediately, after the results were announced it now seems clear that person will be Junaid Mattu, who resigned from National Conference (NC) to contest the elections. I believe that Junaid Mattu himself wasn’t sure about his performance as he contested from four wards (of which he won from three). This was a first time experience for me as I saw someone fighting out in such a safe manner for the municipal polls.

Ever since the results are out the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is in the celebration mood because the BJP has come out with results on an unexpected line. The BJP has won 100 wards (with no opponent in 76) in the Kashmir region and 212 wards in its stronghold Jammu. The prestigious Jammu Municipal Corporation (JMC) also went to BJP inspite of the anti-incumbency of the last four years. Now adding to this success, BJP has set a target of 50 seats for the next assembly elections in the state.  If I talk of the Congress party then it has lost a big opportunity in these elections.  The Congress just performed in the hilly areas of the state and went flat in the plains of Jammu. The performance of the Congress in the Jammu Municipal Corporation (JMC) is even poorer than the 2005 municipal election results. The biggest factor that I consider wrecked the Congress in Jammu region is the wrong distribution of tickets to the candidates vis a vis factionalism in the just concluded elections. For me the Congress is yet too far from playing the real role of the opposition. 

However, BJP suffered a big defeat at the hands of Congress in the Kargil and Leh municipal bodies. This is a major setback for the BJP because the party has won the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat in 2014 and also has the majority in the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC). Furthermore, since the celebrations are going on for BJP there are very few in local circles who are highlighting the defeat of Deepak Gupta (the brother of former DyCM Kavinder Gupta) and victory of Rajinder Singh alias Bubby (the brother of BJP leader Choudhary Lal Singh) along with his wife Vandina Andotra (as independent candidates from Kathua municipal council). The biggest fact of these election results is that the independent candidates across state have emerged as an entirely new segment of ‘politicians’. The independents are the single largest group in Kashmir and in the Jammu region; BJP is followed by independents and then the Congress. More so these independents now shall be switching sides before formation of municipal bodies.

The rise and the emergence of independents is result of the boycott by the NC and the PDP over the article 35A controversy. In addition to it, the allegations against NC and the PDP for fielding proxy candidates have turned true in Jammu region as recently the pictures of leaders of these parties has gone viral on social media while celebrating the success of independent candidates. Otherwise these parties have become successful in saving their cadre (from the militants) who may have gone on back foot in the upcoming parliamentary or assembly elections in the state amid threats. Further, the boycott by both these parties has helped the BJP and the Congress in a major way. 

In the end, I would say that with the worst-ever polling percentage in the Kashmir valley these elections must open the eyes of the central government.  No wonder there are few takers to this message as these elections are being dubbed as “successful” elections. I don't understand what parameters were employed to come to this conclusion because these elections have once again shown that Kashmiris stand alienated. BJP wants to serve the nation then they have to understand that they cannot claim to serve Kashmir by the election of displaced persons living at present in Jammu. The situation is deep and let all these records change the situation forever as the valley has seen the bloom of lotus.

Dogra’s In An Identity Crisis

In my column last month, I highlighted how the sentiments of Dogra’s are being misused by a person to prosper in the political field of Jammu. There are many similar issues (existing in other forms) of the Jammu region about which I didn’t write in my earlier work. So I decided to highlight it in this column.  Even after 70 years of independence, the Dogra’s of Jammu (Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs) are still facing an identity crisis. For the revival of this Dogra identity they had been promised moons and stars by many politicians till today. The result of this is that Dogra’s in past some decades have developed a sense of discrimination and injustice. Now they consider themselves as victims. This feeling of discrimination and injustice is not wrong because there are many issues and matters in which discrimination within regions is clearly visible. More so, it has now become a routine affair with political patronage of few. But I believe that this feeling of “victims” in Dogra’s came into being all because of the lack of political will in the Jammu region. As per my observation, this is the main fault line as lack of political will in Jammu region has led to suppression and discrimination. In addition to it, in these past years the aspirations of Jammu got totally overlooked and shadowed. 

For me, Jammu & Kashmir is not an easy state to control, manage and rule and so is for the prevailing parties of Jammu & Kashmir state. Moreover, contributing to it is its different geography, climate, language and culture of regions. This debate of injustice done with the Jammu region has given growth to forces of radical thought and fundamentalism in this part of state. Earlier, this radical thought and fundamentalism was used only by some Kashmir based organizations against Jammu. Finally, this trend has erupted in Jammu as I see many people in social circles of Jammu who are floating ideas that ‘it is time to find a permanent and long-lasting solution for Jammu & Kashmir’. They even go to the extent of separating Jammu from Kashmir by forming Jammu as an independent state. Strangely, this sense is growing and there is urgency to deal with it. I am very sure that the existence of our state is based on its unity and it should not be divided just on the basis of regional aspirations. 

This regional divide has furthered a threat to the identity and culture of Dogra’s. The presence of rohingyas and bangladeshis in Jammu region has created a negative thinking in Jammu region. An alarm is also raised by some people over growth of muslim colonies surrounding Jammu city. Many people in Jammu city see this growth on religious lines and ask why only Jammu?  Surprisingly, adding to this threat is the settlement of rohingayas and bangaladeshis in these above stated colonies.  On this issue, Congress and BJP both are in war of words because a congress leader is accused of settling them (rohingayas and bangaladeshis) and on the other hand BJP leaders (who had made several statements of evicting rohingayas and bangaladeshis) have taken no action against them in last more than four years. It is yet not too late to make amends on this problem and to instill confidence in Dogra’s. The prevailing administrative machinery should immediately carry out verification and identify all those who have illegally managed to enter our state. Once identified, such people should be deported from the state. This issue needs a clear cut approach in order to reduce the growing ill will within regions in the state. 

This is not all that is creating rifts within the state. The debate on Article 35A of the Indian constitution has brought Jammu and Kashmir regions in an eye to eye position. Jammu is totally divided on this matter, as for some Article 35 A is more relevant than Kashmir and Ladakh.  They apprehend that its repeal will lead to the economic deprivation and erosion of cultural identity of the Dogra’s. On the other, some people in Jammu claim that they are being discriminated against and the removal of Article 35A will lead to their political empowerment. Whereas, the whole people of Kashmir along with all political parties (forgetting political differences) of Kashmir are clear on this matter and are supporting Article 35A. I think that being liberal or illiberal on this issue won’t serve and before taking any action, it is important to understand whether the repeal of this article will address differences within regions.

There are many in our state who intends to destabilize the secular and composite culture of our state. A different thought within the region also prevails on the demand for declaring Maharaja Hari Singh’s birth anniversary as a state holiday in J&K. This matter is completely part of a silent aggression within regions. This too needs attention and should be addressed one way or other to end this aggression. Let me remind you that many people in our state are not happy with the holiday of ‘martyr’s day’ but we still have it. Similarly, when many don’t want a holiday on Maharaja Hari Singh’s birth anniversary we still can have it. The bigger idea is to satisfy both the regions by having both holidays and for this every party has to think over and above their vote banks. I feel very little work and struggle to restore the regional balance in Jammu & Kashmir. In order to make all regions happy and peaceful, efforts should also be made on political level to honour the sentiments of people of Jammu region as they have developed a sense of fear. Indeed, each region of the state — Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh — must get its due share. Only the conspiracies against each other grow stronger day by day. There are blunders which need action for the betterment of the country. We shouldn’t turn our friends and neighbours into our enemies under a planned effort by few who only have their self interest.

Riding On Dogra Sentiment

As the nation celebrated its 72nd Independence Day, Jammuites too celebrated this occasion. From politicians to social workers, from government employees to civil society members - all took steps to express their pride on this occasion. However, in the past few weeks an attempt to raise pro-Dogra sentiment has been made in Jammu. I believe there is nothing wrong in it but the way it is being done, by an organization, is totally wrong. I want to talk about, Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan, an organization floated by Choudhary Lal Singh (a former Congress leader who joined the BJP before the 2014 Lok Sabha election) who is presently the BJP MLA from Basohli and former minister in PDP-BJP coalition government (ousted from cabinet for participating in rally organized in favor of accused in Kathua minor rape and murder case). Ever since the launch of Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan, this organization has been claiming that it would work for dignity and unity of Dogra’s in Jammu region only.

Although it is claimed that Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan is an apolitical organization, as per my observations it seems to have strong political motives which is clearly visible in the issues raised by this organization. Among the top priorities of Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan is the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir and its resources, and that the post of chief minister should be rotational for three years between the Jammu and Kashmir regions of the state. This is not all, the Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan has asked the government employees to proceed on mass leave on 23rd September, 2018 to observe the birth anniversary of Maharaja Hari Singh (which BJP failed to get declared as a public holiday during its government). After noticing this all, I am sure anyone who is not associated with Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan will get convinced of its high political intentions. This issue also gets supportive evidence because in the past these issues were very close to all parties who raised their voice only for Jammu. Now, the only difference is that Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan seems to have hijacked these issues from them.

I am quite surprised, while this all is going on the BJP in J&K has turned a mute spectator to the activities of Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan run by its own MLA. Previously for BJP, it was the Congress party in Jammu with which it had to fight over the issues of Jammu region to get the votes. However, with the emergence of Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan the situation seems to have slipped entirely out of the hands of both parties. I think that the BJP for this failure of not taking any action against its own MLA may have to pay a heavy price as elections to Lok Sabha are round the corner. On the other hand, the Lok Sabha elections could be the reason that BJP is not interested in taking any action against its MLA who has a strong hold over Udhampur parliamentary constituency. This all what is going on between Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan and BJP doesn’t seem natural as per Indian politics and gives me another reason to consider Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan as an authorized offshoot of BJP. The entire purpose could be to keep the Dogra sentiment burning so that later it can be used either way. I may not be wrong for all those who remember how the Dogra’s participated in Amarnath land agitation and this agitation was later en-cashed by BJP.

Although, Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan has become a dream merchant and is riding on Dogra sentiment yet many people in social circles of Jammu have common questions for Lal Singh. I don’t have answers for them so I would like to highlight their biggest question i.e. why during his tenures as a minister in all earlier governments Lal Singh didn’t ever protest for pro Jammu cause?  In the end, I would say that it’s been 70 years since the debate on the issue of discrimination with Jammu and Ladakh is going on and none can bring the change on it in overnight. Moreover, when the system remained unchanged even under the BJP (from whom a major change was expected after 2014), therefore nothing appears to come too soon for Jammuites. This story telling method (used for Jammuites) is not new because presenting a rosy picture to Jammuites is an old method used by many leaders who later converted it for their own political gains. Basically, the idea of spreading hatred within regions by highlighting discriminations won’t take us in the right direction ever. In such a situation, it is easy to infer that in the near future such propaganda may only harm the entire state. This rhetoric adopted by some Jammu politicians against Kashmir and similarly it being done by some people in Kashmir hasn’t got us any results till today. I firmly believe that if it continues then nothing good may come our way.

Political Uncertainty

After the break-up of the PDP-BJP coalition government now many rumours have been making rounds since past some weeks which in turn has made the political atmosphere very hot in Jammu and Kashmir.  The rumours are that BJP is trying to split the PDP; PDP is trying to form an alliance with Congress party; Haseeb Drabu is instrumental to form new political alignments in Kashmir; Imran Raza Ansari could head a new rising political front in Kashmir; Sajjad Lone could be the new CM with help of BJP in J&K; BJP may after the realignment give first Hindu CM (Dr Jitendra Singh) of the state etc.  Also the biggest rumour supporting these all rumours is that anything said above could take shape once the ongoing Amarnath yatra ends. Now, when such possibilities are presented and painted on such a wide canvas then anything may seem possible in Jammu and Kashmir. Moreover, this all seems possible when some people in political circles are referring to and recalling the defection in the National Conference in mid 80’s by GM Shah that ultimately saw him taking over as chief minister of the state. In addition to it, when Governor N.N. Vohra has not dissolved the assembly and rather kept it in suspended animation further gives out a signal that this all could take shape soon.  While this all is happening the PDP too is not silent and its leader and former CM Mehbooba Mufti has openly threatened that if any attempt to split PDP is made by the New Delhi government the Kashmir may see rebirth of Syed Salahuddin and Yasin Malik. Here, I firmly believe that her anger is justified but not her words to demonstrate her anger.

This all that is taking shape in Jammu and Kashmir under the Governor rule silently reflects so many things. However, I am of the opinion that the premature end of the PDP-BJP coalition government has pushed Jammu and Kashmir into political uncertainty. Basically, PDP-BJP both failed to extract anything substantial on political, economical and security fronts from the centre government viz a viz agenda of alliance. The real test for Mehbooba Mufti & PDP (in absence of late Mufti Mohd. Sayeed) has started now as all want to see how she would keep her flock together amid allegations of PDP becoming a “family democratic party”. All the BJP leaders in Jammu are tight-lipped about their party’s political plan. More so, BJP leaders are simply saying that there is no scope for forming a new government and walking out of the coalition was in the interest of the nation. On the other hand, the BJP leader Avinash Rai Khanna recently admitted that they don’t deny looking for a suitable arrangement in the state. But for me, BJP cannot clear itself easily by saying such words as it too hasn’t given anything concrete to people of Jammu region in the last three years while enjoying power in the coalition government. By now the Governor NN Vohra has cancelled many steps taken by the PDP BJP government and even has made many issues to move which were struck giving people in Jammu a reason to be happy. But is that the job of the Governor? Where were political representatives from Jammu for the last 3 years? Is it that blaming PDP is now BJP’s right? Why I am writing such things is that these days BJP is all praise for the Governor and expect peace to return soon in the state under his leadership.

 

Although the return of peace sounds good in theory for the whole state, the present prevailing situation is unlikely to change in weeks or months. As the 2019 general elections are nearing and after not being able to hold a by-election in the Lok Sabha constituency in Kashmir, holding state-wide elections shall be a tough job for the centre government. In the last 4 years only political games are going on in Jammu and Kashmir and nothing concrete has been done by the centre government on the issues which have disturbed the state. For how long we shall keep witnessing governor rule in the state? The centre government must use the opportunity that the present political crisis has offered to fix the prevailing problems in the state. More importantly, all parties have a role to play to push the state away from the edge towards the peace our state has been longing for.

Break Up In Coalition

The assembly elections of 2014 in Jammu and Kashmir gave out a fractured verdict. It was the result of campaigning by both People’s Democratic Party (PDP) & Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP). The PDP at that time campaigned in the entire Kashmir on the grounds that a vote for them would mean keeping the BJP out of Jammu and Kashmir and won 25 seats in Kashmir and 3 seats in Jammu region. Similarly, reminder calls of BJP leaders especially PM Narendra Modi that “kabhi baap-betay ki sarkar, kabhi baap-beti ki sarkar '' made the people in Jammu region vote for the BJP and the saffron party won 25 seats. But as results came out all rhetoric died and after two months of negotiations a coalition between BJP and PDP itself was formed. This moment added to Jammu and Kashmir’s long history where the parties in J&K state allied with the party in power at the centre (in 2002 PDP tied up with the Congress and in 2008 the National Conference  tied up with Congress). The former chief minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed called this PDP-BJP coalition the “meeting of the north and south pole”. The reason outlined by the late Mufti Mohammed Sayeed to form a coalition with the BJP was an opportunity to bridge the gap between the people of Jammu and Kashmir regions. Although these ideological opposites met, they both moved on only with help of a document called the ‘agenda of alliance’. Like many, I too was stunned to see that coalition and for me election results reflected the divide between the two regions as both regions voted against each other. Many called this coalition a dishonest one and predicted that it was never going to work. 

In the past 3 years everything wasn’t normal for PDP- BJP and both were under intense pressure to preserve the state government. Both these parties tried to prove in their respective regions that they haven’t given up on their agenda of bridging the gap between both regions. Meanwhile, the PDP’s stronghold South Kashmir in these years saw so much unrest after the killing of Burhan Wani and almost every day gunfight between militants and security forces took place in other areas of the Kashmir region. Moreover, several workers of the PDP were also shot dead. With this all, the promise of bringing peace to the valley by PDP never became reality. Recently, the PDP suffered alot in the valley when BJP ministers attended rallies of the Hindu Ekta Manch demanding a CBI investigation into Kathua rape and murder case. However, the sacking of the two ministers (Lal Singh and Chander Prakash Ganga) of BJP from cabinet was projected by PDP as a pacifying step but when the Kathua MLA Rajiv Jasrotia (involved in the Kathua controversy) was brought into cabinet by BJP the peacemaking efforts didn’t pay much for PDP. In addition to it, things didn’t become smooth for PDP because ever since Lal Singh was out of cabinet he started a full time campaign (appears to have support of party because senior leadership has fallen silent) by organizing ‘Dogra Swabhiman’ rallies and was demanding CBI inquiry into Kathua case even though accused has been arrested & the law should have been allowed to follow its course. Let’s not also forget the case within Kathua case i.e. when the brother of Lal Singh was arrested for abusing Mehbooba Mufti during a rally organized by Lal Singh for demanding CBI inquiry. Incidentally, all the steps taken by Lal Singh didn’t go well with the PDP cadre in Kashmir. Furthermore, the new deputy chief minister Kavinder Gupta after assuming charge spoke of Kathua case being a “small incident” added to the anger of Kashmir people against PDP. This role played by BJP and its ministers somewhere deepened the divide in the allies.

On the other hand, the situation was the same for BJP in the Jammu region as BJP too suffered ever since this coalition was formed. BJP gave out many signals that showed that it was just playing a second-fiddle role in the government. Many times the PDP in the state government took decisions on issues (like setting up of new medical and technical institutions should be set up in Jammu or in Kashmir) which proved terrible for the BJP in Jammu. After seeing all this in the past 3 years, the BJP’s cadre was angry and felt that BJP was not in a position to assert itself in the government. Officially, many times I saw the BJP’s functionaries defending the coalition in spite of the fact that BJP failed to end perceived domination of Kashmir over Jammu. Not to forget that the Rohingya refugees issue in Jammu also exposed the intention of BJP as nothing much happened in the last 4 years of centre government. I feel that the BJP failed in its goals as even the promises of development and employment are nowhere visible on ground. While so much was happening yet the BJP preferred to stay silent.

This all was witnessed till 19th June of 2018 as BJP suddenly pulled out of the Mehbooba Mufti government and governor rule was implemented.  This decision of BJP could be entirely to regain ground in Jammu and Kashmir and across the country before 2019 general elections. Now the PDP is left in crisis as it has been alienated by its ally as well as by its voters in south Kashmir. After the killings of Shujaat Bukhari, rifleman Aurangzeb and failure of ceasefire initiative it was proved that all those who wanted to give peace a chance failed completely. The whole state of J&K is seeing some of its worst years since the 1990’s as a very different kind of politics after 2014 created deep polarization in the two regions. Both parties lost public goodwill and to save itself from further loss BJP withdrew from this coalition after 3 years.  Both the coalition partners in this time of conflict are now in a cover-up mode by giving various explanations of this separation. After all these years, the coalition between the PDP and BJP didn’t make any sense and only made Jammu and Kashmir more vulnerable.

Fuel On Fire

Whenever there is a rise in the prices of petrol and diesel a very strong resentment grows among the general public in India against the prevailing government for its failure to control the prices. Moreover, the leaders from opposition parties slam the prevailing government immediately. In the past 10 days there has been a consecutive rise in prices of petrol and diesel for which the Narendra Modi government has to face the public and opposition parties who all are demanding corrective measures.  Well, it is not something that is being only faced by the Modi government. I remember how before 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) targeted the Manmohan Singh government for failure to control the prices of petrol and diesel. The BJP at that time has made up its mind that their road to victory may pass from a petrol pump and hence they very beautifully managed the protest series on social media against the rising fuel prices. At the end of the day, elections were to be won and there was this one easy method that was availed very well in advance. So I think in a way now this government is getting back what it gave away as an opposition. 

It is a known fact that the crude oil prices determine the fuel rates in our country. If we go back decades then in July 2008 international crude oil rates were $142 per barrel which made petrol and diesel in India to be sold at Rs 50.62 per litre and 34.86 per litre. In comparison to it, the international crude oil rates in May 2018 are at around $80 per barrel, but petrol is being sold at Rs 76.57 per litre and diesel at Rs 67.82 a litre. As I don’t want to further this ongoing ‘socio-political oil war’ in India, I would just say that analyze these above data of rates to understand as to who was right and who is wrong. Basically, despite a drop in international crude oil prices ever since the Modi government came to power, the fuel prices in the country were not reduced proportionately. It is as a result of this all that petrol prices have hit the highest level under the present government and diesel too is at record high these days.

Under the Manmohan Singh government, the prices of petrol and diesel were regulated and subsidies were given to ensure that prices were tolerable and fuels remained cheaper. However, inspite of the fact that the present government introduced the deregulation of retail fuel prices, the benefit of this step is not coming to consumers. With this all the question arises that where is the problem? Basically, the problem is “taxes” which are imposed by the government on petrol and diesel. Presently, the central government levies Rs 19.48 a litre of excise duty on petrol and Rs 15.33 per litre on diesel. In addition to it, states have VAT the rates of which vary from state to state. If we talk of the J & K government then the government here is charging 21 % sales tax /VAT on petrol and 14.5 % on diesel. For this reason, these days when we pay Rs 80 for a litre of petrol out of it Rs 35-40 is going to the governments i.e. state and union.  This revenue generation for the governments via fuels makes it clear as to why the centre and state governments have kept petroleum products outside the GST (the idea of which was one nation one tax). The loss of revenue and profits is the reason that there is reluctance in the government to bring fuels under the GST as it will reduce the taxes that are levied these days.

Although the present government takes the credit for the fuel price reform after the BJP came to power but recently these fuels too got politicized when ahead of the Karnataka assembly elections oil companies froze the daily hike of petrol and diesel prices for almost three weeks. For obvious reasons, the government kept fuel prices in check during the Karnataka assembly elections but prices started shooting up as soon as the polls were over. This shows that higher petrol and diesel prices cannot be ignored from a political viewpoint in our country. Whatever move the government makes over this issue shall surely be interesting to watch in near future considering that the BJP is in power in 20 states, other state elections are coming up this year and even the Modi government does not have long time left in office.  I believe a permanent solution to this problem lies in the inclusion of auto fuels under the GST to bring uniformity of taxes on petrol and diesel otherwise the “fuel on fire” situation will keep coming as  has come after four years to confront the Modi government.

Stay United In This Divided Time

The unfortunate incident that happened with a minor girl in Rassana village of Kathua has brought two communities in Jammu region on a very rough road. This new issue all of a sudden took the shape of a conflict in Jammu and Kashmir and came into the world's attention. Tension in the Jammu region started building up slowly in the past 3 months when this incident happened at Rassana village. A kind of communal rift has also emerged in these months because some few people from both communities have been instigating this matter slowly but regularly. The sensitivity of the issue was already high but with this added instigation a totally polarized zone emerged within the Jammu region. 

This matter took negative shape when it was internally & silently backed by people from different political parties. Further the worst things started happening when the leaders of BJP went to address a rally of people in Kathua area lending their support only to one community. This started a trend and leaders across political parties started taking sides of one community or other and helped people to raise their voices over this tense situation. Suddenly the protests done against the accused and those done to shield the accused persons got mixed up and in turn created whole confusion. This was not all, some of the media people and social media platforms showed visuals of people carrying the tricolour and raising jai shri ram slogans as if this all was being done only and only to support and defend the accused persons. The international media too jumped into it and some of them termed all these tricolor carrying people as the new face of pro-hindutva supporters. I don’t know anything about the real intentions of these tricolor carrying people but I believe tricolour if used should only have demanded justice. However, many conclusions were drawn over this act of using tricolour.

On the other hand when this all was going on, the victim's family was facing humiliation as they were hurt and stunned to see people going against them after this brutal incident which can happen with anyone’s daughter. This negativity which has grown between both communities was created only by some elements that I think have succeeded in doing a permanent damage to peace in the Jammu region. This ugly situation has some contributions from advocates who tried to stop the police from presenting the charge sheet before the court in this case. It was such a move that gave anti social elements in Kashmir to further exaggerate the situation and in turn also brought countrywide condemnation for the lawyers in Jammu. This whole issue grew up when the J&K High Court Bar Association gave a call for Jammu bandh on April 11 by raising their four demands i.e. removal of Rohingyas settled in Jammu, revocation of the tribal affairs department directive, district status for Nowshera and investigation of the Rassana case by CBI. Basically, protesting over these issues together made J&K High Court Bar Association members appear as if they were "glorifying rapists”. Jammu region has always represented the secular fabric since militancy erupted in Kashmir but because of this single incident the secular factor of Jammu region has got affected. Now such is the state of suspicion in the Jammu region that the victim's family has demanded that the trial of the case be shifted out of J&K state. The suspicion is also on the working of the government and its machinery because a fulltime campaign is being held by various organizations in Jammu who are demanding a CBI probe into this incident. The government appears to have failed on this issue as both the communities do not trust each other as well as the government.

When this all happened I was forced to think as to why suddenly such volcanic type anger eruptions were seen in Jammuites. I am sure that somewhere the anger in the minds of Jammuites over the issues like; the demographic change in region, illegal settlements and a fear that land is gradually being taken by non-Jammu residents was used to manipulate the whole Rassana incident. Let’s not forget that ahead of an election year the flaring up of sentiments is not new in India and I assume that the same happened in J&K. In the end, I say it very clearly that the brutal and horrific crime was used by some to score personal points. Initially the sequence of events shown about the crime was different but as time went by many new narratives were added. Now the situation is such that you may find many groups of supporters over every narrative both in Jammu and in Kashmir. The trial in this case has begun yet there are many unanswered questions as to why, when, where and how this incident happened. I don’t want to comment over any such thing but I only want to say that we need to be rational and should put in no religious sentiments over an incident which has brought shame to the entire humanity. People of the entire state need to stay united in this divided time or else we live with divided hearts.

Jammu In A Test Mode

PDP-BJP when formed an alliance in J&K many questions were raised as to how this combination of political parties would survive. But both these political parties appeared dedicated at that time to go hand in hand to bring peace and prosperity in Jammu and Kashmir. In order to ensure proper working, even an agenda of alliance was fixed to run the PDP-BJP government. Now 3 years have passed since this government was formed in Jammu and Kashmir and nothing much is there yet to celebrate out of this agenda of alliance. However, BJP with a ‘Maha Rally’ in Jammu celebrated 3 years of this alliance government. On the other hand, no such fanfare over this issue was seen in PDP.  Basically, the main idea behind formation of this alliance was to bring both Jammu & Kashmir regions close to each other. But many people by now believe that it could not be achieved under this government because unrest, militancy and fidayeen attacks which had been happening in Kashmir since last some decades are still continuing. 

Although in Kashmir region nothing much has changed but some recent events in Jammu region show that Jammu has changed under this government. It all started after the victory of BJP in assembly elections in J&K. People in Jammu region expected that BJP will now fight for the cause of Jammu. From the time when BJP formed government with PDP it slowly lost the political charm among Jammuites. People have started saying openly after 3 years that BJP has betrayed the Jammu region.  Basically, people are tired and are not able to digest why their representatives are not behaving as per their aspirations. Behavior of BJP has in a way put Jammu in a test mode.  The patience & sentiments of people in Jammu region are getting diluted as BJP has somewhere dropped its pro Jammu stand on many issues. In addition to it, there are some latest issues which have put BJP on a back foot. 

First is the issue of Rohingya illegal immigrants. Presently, the situation is such in Jammu region that people in Jammu don’t want to go into the legality or illegality of Rohingaya settlements in Jammu. They simply want that all Rohingayas should be sent back. BJP totally appears helpless on this sentimental issue of Jammuites. Although it is assumed by many that a congress leader has facilitated the settlement of Rohingayas in some areas of Jammu, yet BJP cannot escape its duty over this issue. Further, this issue once again gained momentum recently when a group of journalists were attacked near Rohingya settlements by local residents. This new development in a way showed that there are some people who are even supporting Rohingaya presence in Jammu. Moreover, this incident has further helped in spreading the hatred against Rohingyas in entire Jammu region.

Second is the issue of Kathua rape & murder case of a minor Bakerwal girl last month. This matter once again built a social pressure on BJP as many people in this BJP ruled constituency demanded a CBI inquiry into the rape and murder incident. This matter slowly got communalized to some extent & could have led to a dangerous situation in Jammu. Two serving state ministers of BJP even attended a rally organized in support of the accused in the rape and murder of minor girl. Interestingly, the PDP took an entirely different stance and similarly two of its ministers said that there should be no doubt in the investigative capabilities of the state police. So they in a manner snubbed the demand for CBI enquiry. This also has impacted the social and political image of BJP in Jammu.

Third is the issue of Nowshera-Sundarbani bandh for district status which paralyzed these areas for more than a month. This too is a BJP ruled constituency and this long bandh exposed the anger the people have silently developed against BJP. The fourth issue is the latest statement of Union Minister of State for Home Hansraj Gangaram Ahir in which he has informed the Lok Sabha that there is currently no proposal to scrap Article 370 which gives special status to Jammu and Kashmir. Perhaps by now some readers must be thinking that I am writing against one party but honestly the situation is against this party & being a Jammuite I penned it down. My write up has just compiled the facts to which BJP has put a brave face for some time. I know some may argue over these facts but I want them to basically debate it on a larger platform or soon the results could be quite different for the present political status of BJP.

On the whole the situation in J&K had been quite problematic for both PDP-BJP in the past 3 years. Jammu region appears as if it has no political power in the government because of BJP’s present working style. The BJP's hardline stance towards Kashmir suffered when the government of India appointed former Intelligence Bureau chief Dineshwar Sharma as interlocutor for Jammu and Kashmir last year. The upcoming summer in Kashmir may make the situation deep & dark for PDP as a local newspaper shared that intelligence agencies have sounded a high alert about the possibility of unrest in the coming summer. And considering all of this I think the next year is very critical for J&K politically. Basically, I have a question in my mind & that is - can this alliance work post 2019? All in all BJP needs to treat its voters & supporters in a very true manner because social media campaigns won’t work for easing anger in people of Jammu region. For PDP I feel it is a herculean task in Kashmir as opposition parties there have played a role which has made way forward difficult for PDP. It is an apt time for both PDP-BJP to work over or else it will be difficult enough to convince the voters.

Burdened Roads

Every day when we go out to drive in and around Jammu city we never realize the intensity of moving traffic on roads around us. However, as soon as we get stuck in a traffic jam (which is witnessed at various places of Jammu city) we realize the steep rise in number of vehicles and of the traffic problem which has now already taken a chronic shape. Traffic problem in Jammu has started troubling everybody as thousands of vehicles are plying every day on Jammu roads. Moreover, it is said that every year almost 40 thousand new vehicles are being added on the roads of Jammu. Somewhere contributing to this problem are the mini-bus operators in Jammu who on a daily basis create a massive mess on the roads. They in turn are also facilitated by some traffic cops who turn blind eye towards these mini-buses. Basically, by now there are multiple issues which have cropped up in the past few years to take the shape of this traffic problem.

If we all simply try to find why such a problem has risen in the past some years,  then for me it is somewhere all because of people at the helm of affairs who could not analyse the impact of this rising traffic on the Jammu roads in the years to come. Firstly, we can clearly see that there is no growth of road infrastructure in Jammu city. We all can see that our city in the past 3 decades got only two flyovers which now could not serve the rising pressure of traffic. From this we can notice how the vehicles which kept growing on a day to day basis created burdened roads which mainly were never made to serve this level of traffic. It shows how the successive governments continuously ignored the need of new roads and flyovers for Jammu city. In fact, if I talk of the already debated flyover projects from the BC Road to Amphalla & Jewel to Canal road then it is an open secret that these projects were abandoned only due to political pressure for facilitating some influential people who may have suffered because of these projects. Hence, this problem of daily traffic jams on roads is visible now in a deep shape. 

Secondly, over these years we saw that most of the time the focus was on traffic management but this did not end the problem or either improved the deteriorating situation. In the past, when the questions were asked to the traffic police here as to why they aren’t able to regulate traffic in Jammu city, then the most common reply we got was that the traffic police here have a limited number of policemen and it becomes virtually impossible for the traffic department to manage all vehicles. This all made people quite disheartened & at times quite angry towards traffic policemen. Interestingly, in the past some days the Jammu people are showing high hopes and regards for these traffic men in Jammu. These days a new phase has started wherein steps are being taken to get rid of this traffic problem. Suddenly, this all is because of the new IG of Traffic, Basant Rath, who is putting all his efforts to simplify things on roads here. The new IG has already pulled up lower ranking traffic cops on duty to regulate traffic strictly at all important points in & around the city where we see traffic jams on a daily basis. Not only this, he has also launched very strict drives to educate masses to follow traffic rules so that the problems of rising traffic can be regulated. Despite severe criticism by some people including some politicians he hasn’t stopped with his routine till now. Although I am also witnessing these efforts of the new IG, I believe that the solution of this chronic problem is not possible without the support of people.

Thirdly, in addition to it no long term measures were adopted in order to provide a parking area for the growing number of vehicles in the city. Resultant of this was that parking areas kept shrinking in comparison to vehicles on roads. In this aspect, the planners appeared lacking behind & no control measures were adopted by providing new parking structures. Presently, to deal with this problem of rapidly growing vehicular population it is required that parking infrastructure should be developed in Jammu. Growing number of vehicles with no road infrastructure and very less traffic management done in absence of parking spaces added to the problem on the roads in Jammu. If we don’t work on these all issues to settle this traffic problem then the Jammu city will witness total disorder in years to come. By witnessing traffic being regulated at the hands of an officer of the rank of IG, personally I think this is the last resort for solving the problem of traffic. Finally, it should be taken as a warning that the traffic problem on roads in Jammu has reached its threshold limit and without working on these multiple problems we won’t be able to ease the burden on roads.

Revisiting Democracy Via Panchayats

2018 has already started and all political parties in J&K are now preparing for their first political test of the year. Yes, I am talking of panchayat elections for which all parties have geared up and a drive for it has begun in Jammu and Kashmir. All political parties in the state have set their eyes on these upcoming polls because it is believed that very shortly these polls may be announced in the state.  In our democracy, these panchayats play a vital role in taking forward the all-round developmental agenda of the governments. Now if I talk of the political importance of these elections in Jammu & Kashmir, then the results of this election will reflect the social standing of all political parties in J&K.

Before going further, let me remind you that it was after panchayat elections in 2011, the panchayats were constituted in our state and they have already completed their five-year term in July 2016. So by now, it must be clear to you that this institution of Indian democracy has suffered nearly for more than one and a half years in Jammu & Kashmir. This delay has already caused so much suffering since in absence of panchayats developmental works at the grass root level are totally neglected. Panchayat system in the state got unstable for many reasons and some of it was purely political. Till some weeks back it was believed that these elections were not a priority of the present state government. However, as the central government has blocked many grants running into crores to Jammu and Kashmir, the state government was forced to declare that these elections will be conducted soon.

It is pertinent to mention here that, though this election mood has erupted in past some weeks, a big amendment in the year 2016 was brought in the provisions of Jammu and Kashmir Panchayati Raj Act, 1989 by the PDP-BJP government. With this change, now sarpanch of every respective panchayat will be elected by the panchs and because of this, elections are being held only for the post of panchs. Here I think that the PDP-BJP government has in a way created a new system within a system by changing the basic spirit of panchayats. This indirect election of sarpanchs in a way is being questioned by many as it has helped in reducing the accountability on the part of sarpanchs. It has also created doubt in minds of people over the intent of the PDP-BJP government. However, the present PDP-BJP government claims that this move is made only to make easy the election of sarpanchs and government is committed to empowerment of grass root level institutions. But overall this hasn't gone well with main opposition parties like National Conference & Congress because if we go back to 2011, the National Conference-Congress government then had gone for direct election of the sarpanchs. 

In spite of this all, when the panchayat elections process starts then I believe that this time Jammu region & Kashmir region will have entirely different social issues on which these elections will be contested by candidates. On one hand, in Jammu the Congress party is all prepared to corner the BJP over many issues. Basically, the slogan of “nationalism and integration” of BJP is going to suffer as the BJP approved to hold such indirect elections to panchayats. Furthermore, elections are being held without fully extending the 73rd amendment of the Indian Constitution to J&K state. These all matters may very well be exploited by all the opposition parties based in Jammu. On the other hand in Kashmir, the situation is totally contrasted and no excitement by now is seen for this election there. The unrest seen after the killing of Burhan Wani has altogether changed the political ground in Kashmir of all parties. In addition to it, militancy in past some months has got glamorized through social media and result of which is that many educated youth are joining militants with the latest case of a PhD scholar of Aligarh Muslim University coming into limelight.  Finally, I may remind you that a provocative battle has started as militants in Kashmir have issued threats of throwing acid in the eyes of all those who contest these elections. It all doesn’t end here; even the Hurriyat leadership has urged the people in Kashmir to boycott these elections.

This time there are many factors which may influence these elections and political battles may heat up soon as days pass. These elections are like a gamble amid the tense political situation in Kashmir. Especially, at a time when the central government failed to conduct parliamentary polls in the home turf of PDP. But with assembly polls lined up this year in many states across India, it would be a key political matter for the BJP. Eventually our state will be revisiting democracy via panchayats & I hope something doesn't go wrong midway. Following all this, it will be quite interesting to see how these elections go during an atmosphere when discontent has grown against PDP-BJP in both regions.