Inspired By The Constitution

India these days is witnessing the largest student protest after some decades in the country. The students are protesting against the new citizenship law in India.  The demand of protesters is that India shouldn’t be converted into a democracy where discrimination and a sense of fear prevail. Further, it is demanded that anyone shouldn’t be excluded on the basis of their identity. Every movement has a shape and in this case the students who feel insecure under the political leaders are on roads to create a moral and institutional regeneration among the political class of the country. These students appear to be fed up with poisonous public discourse which is sowing hatred in the minds of the people. 

Weak institutions and leaders of the country with divisive passions are among some challenges the country is facing right now. In the past, during the emergency period also the country faced challenges. During that time, the fight was for the restoration of democracy but these days there are two fights. Firstly, for democratic rights and secondly against the rising communalism supported by the political circles of our country. The citizenship amendment act (CAA) has divided the society and given a signal that minorities in the country are second class citizens. From CAA to common civil code to population control everything will pose a moral challenge in our society. The minority and majority communities will be put to competition in the country as this all is being pushed within the political circles of India.

These all issues including the announcement of updating the national population register (NPR) are furthering the fight over CAA. There are also speculations that the new NPR form will have some new questions which could later become a database for the national register of citizens (NRC). This all reflects more division in Indian society in the upcoming years. This situation we are witnessing is just on roads and soon will make way in our families and even friend circles. The streets would not witness this all if the political forces haven’t let us down on all basic constitutional principles. We shouldn’t forget that prejudice when nurtured in political circles always sends a significant message and many social movements could join against it. Then there comes risks which are inherent in any social movement. Although every country has the power to suppress any such movement but when the situation implodes under such movements then all participants are tagged as anti nationals. And use of arbitrary power increases which we are witnessing in protests against CAA.

Let’s not forget that India gained its Independence through Satyagraha and violence has never helped in any cause which is pro-country. Even though there is fear of being discriminated against in future yet we need to exercise control and this has to be conveyed to protesting masses in the shape of some sound reassurance from the government. But the Prime Minister made a public speech blaming the protesters amid the number of brutal measures against them. The building of detention centers in Assam cannot be ignored in this ongoing debate. The contrary statements from Prime Minister and Home Minister on CAA, NRC reflects that something is surely fishy. Even the President of India in his address to the Parliament this year has mentioned about NRC. We have witnessed earlier also how Aadhar was allowed for voluntary use and later was made mandatory for many things. 

What is happening is not good for democracy and BJP shouldn’t do everything in the name of mandate. All Indians even after the elections have a right to decide how they would like to live in this country. The Constitution should always remain the most important document for the country and because of this fact the minorities are openly being supported by the majority community in this fight.  The fight is about the soul of India - the Constitution. The BJP needs to answer why such deep fissures have come out in our social system. Introspection is needed and during this ongoing unrest it is also important to focus on the job of opposition parties, as they have a big role in several states. All governments led by opposition parties have to ensure that nothing happens overtly or covertly against the country because large numbers of Indians have shown that they continue to be inspired by the constitution.

Few Options

Last week more than 30 Kashmir-centric leaders were shifted from Centaur hotel to MLA hostel by the Jammu & Kashmir administration in Srinagar. Now this new development has many connotations and one is that the centre government is still not in a mood to release these leaders soon. This is also becoming an emotional nightmare for friends and family members of all these detained leaders. In fact, it has created a worrisome situation in the entire Jammu and Kashmir and triggered some social pressure too. In the social circles of Jammu & Kashmir, especially the Jammu region, the debate has started as to what was lost and what was gained after centre reorganized Jammu & Kashmir on 5th August this year. On this all, BJP appears firm that this step is a sign of the upcoming positive situation in Jammu and Kashmir. However, I believe shutting eyes to all these new building narratives in Jammu post 5th August isn’t good for the BJP led centre government. Moreover, by answering everything in the name of law and order problems to Jammuites won’t take them far. Besides, it is in total an adventurism added with political emotion and this may give rise to new shape of politics in Jammu as was witnessed decades back in Kashmir.

It was known from the beginning that taking any extreme step on Jammu and Kashmir would pose serious problems. So, keeping three former Chief Ministers of the erstwhile state of J&K into preventive custody for almost four months is not the solution to the problem. Initially, it was believed that these leaders would be set free within a few weeks but it has not happened. Their detention appears to have been prolonged may be because these leaders might be continuing to remain rigid with their demands. After being shifted from a hotel to a hostel there is a possibility that they could further be shifted to jails if the government wants to pressurize them on its own terms. I think all these leaders have to realize that the situation has entirely changed for Jammu and Kashmir under the Indian constitution and undoing it won’t be easy for any political party. These leaders now onwards cannot formulate the terms on their own, for dealing with the centre government which is already devising methods to defend its step on Jammu and Kashmir with every passing day. 

Of all what has happened since 5th August the biggest problem is the political vacuum which has been created in Jammu and Kashmir. I feel the hardened stance adopted by BJP won’t dilute soon and if Kashmiri leaders don't show flexibility then they may have to spend more months in confinement. It is all because these conditions totally suit the working of the BJP led centre government. Since the days of Satyapal Malik, the centre government has made it clear that all those who challenge the centre government won’t be tolerated and all doors of talks with them are closed. For me, the leaders in Kashmir especially of mainstream political parties are now left with very few options. They all have to re-strategize if they want to remain relevant in the politics of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir and take on BJP in the political circles of Jammu and Kashmir. The best example for all of them is the newly formed Sena-NCP-Congress alliance in Maharashtra.

Presently, the country is being run on the spirit of nationalism and keeping all such leaders under detention who oppose BJP helps BJP politically. So clearly for its own political interest BJP won’t shy to keep all these leaders in jails. In the new Jammu and Kashmir the political system has changed with the end of special status, so it is clear that politicians too have to change in order to survive. All leaders here in Jammu and Kashmir have to mend their ways and run with the national mainstream to take on BJP which has shattered their political interests. If they don’t end the conventional methods then jail terms won’t end. The BJP is politically claiming the whole of Jammu and Kashmir and it’s high time for these politicians to come out to end the political crisis in this part of the democratic country.

New Test Begins

Less than a week is left for Jammu and Kashmir to be split into two Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir & Ladakh under the J&K Reorganization Act.  This phase has begun with many unanswered questions which are leading to anxious moments and some kind of uncertainty in the minds of the people in Jammu and Kashmir.  Everyone is waiting for the 1st November and thinking as to what lies ahead and what Jammu and Kashmir will be like thereafter.

BJP always believed that by taking away the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, the people of the state would be brought closer to New Delhi. But many people, without having any political affiliation, in Jammu and Kashmir are unhappy with conversion of a state into a Union Territory (UT).  This new step completely reflects that for the restoration of normalcy in the state, a politically suitable measure was adopted by the BJP. This ‘politically suitable measure’ becomes more suspicious because of floating voices, within the political circles here, that there would be no assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir for at least next one year.  

Although the centre government is repeatedly stating that statehood would be restored as soon as normalcy returns. But this ‘normalcy’ clause points only towards Kashmir. BJP too has now made Jammu dependent on Kashmir with this ‘normalcy’ clause. In addition to it, this appears to be a new narrative set by the BJP government that the UT is the signal of abnormal times and it’s a road to normalcy. Surprisingly, what is a ‘normal’ remains unanswered. Is it end of the terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir or the complete change of mind of the people in Jammu and Kashmir? Let’s be honest that there are certain goals which may or may not be achieved by the administrative measures. For this, settling aspirations of people in democratic set up would be the only way forward. The answer to this lies in the conduct of assembly elections at the earliest.

However, for the BJP it won’t be easy because in their new political formula of Jammu and Kashmir stands the issue of delimitation.

Earlier, the mainstream political leaders in Jammu and Kashmir played an important role in settling aspirations of people but today, many of them are under detention. Moreover, things may worsen in the abs­­ence of mainstream political leaders of Jammu and Kashmir and then the central government won’t have any other political option. BJP has been trying to show that there would be some new leadership emerging from Jammu region because of the planned delimitation and the next CM would be from BJP. For me it’s like a bluff played by BJP with its cadre because if Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti agree to the new conditions set up by the central government in UT of Jammu and Kashmir, one of them could be the next CM again.

For the BJP led central government, a new test begins now in the UT of Jammu and Kashmir as they have to make everyone feel that the Kashmir valley is safe. Because Article 370 is gone it does not mean that people will start investing in the UT of Jammu and Kashmir only for patriotic reasons. Many challenges lie ahead and the biggest of them is to bring change in perception. In Kashmir, Article 370 was not just a number but Kashmiris took it as their identity and a defense mechanism for any attempt to bring demographic change in the state. After abrogation of Article 370, Jammu region seems to slip away from BJP as it stood at a shocking figure of 81 in just concluded Block development Council elections. 

Obviously, BJP has never imagined such results but the restrictions in Kashmir in past some months have crashed the economy of Jammu. It appears Sarpanches and Panches have read the pulse of people better than the BJP who are yet in celebratory mood post abrogation of Article 370. The BJP government has tried to change the internal parameters in Jammu and Kashmir but issues of unemployment and development are still closer to people. This reality could not be altered and issues like Samba toll plaza may further wedge the gap between BJP and people in Jammu region. Now onwards, we all taste a new democracy for which resetting has been done in haste. I hope all new solutions and schemes in future win the hearts and minds of people of the new UT.

New Dimensions

On 5th August, the central government scrapped the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcated the state into two Union Territories of J&K and Ladakh. The map of state would now be divided on October 31. While taking away the special status the centre government also took away the statehood. It didn’t end with this, what all has happened after that in Jammu and Kashmir is all new and it was never seen before ever. Initially in Jammu, the movement of people was restricted but people in Kashmir had the worst experience. Although Kashmir was accustomed to the blocking of communication but complete communication blockade was the latest move to curtail the anger of few against India. The measures like blocking telephone lines, cable TV and postal services reflected that the centre government had already done its homework on the apprehension that scrapping of special status might stir trouble. 

The move of the Narendra Modi led centre government on Article 370 has in a way become too controversial. The entire political leadership in Kashmir has been put under detention and some even taken to Agra in Uttar Pradesh. All political leaders are in jail including three former Chief Minister’s Farooq Abdullah, his son Omar Abdullah and PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti. The separatist’s Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and the IAS officer-turned-politician Shah Faesal too are in the same condition. No political voice is left to be heard or seen anywhere in Kashmir. The detention of Farooq Abdullah, a strong voice of Jammu and Kashmir in the country and outside, under PSA is like a new message with a warning to all political leaders under detention. This thing has furthered the debate that in near future PSA could be imposed on many more leaders who resist the detention in any way. Moreover, this step taken in Kashmir politics could bring a political vacuum like never-before which may shape new and grave dangers. It is yet not clear as to when the restrictions will be lifted completely and what would happen after that in Kashmir. 

One thing that has emerged very clearly is that Jammu region and Kashmir region are interdependent. The example of it is that after 5th August the tourists from Jammu have disappeared and it has resulted in huge loss to hoteliers, restaurant owners, transporters and the fruit traders from Jammu who have invested in Kashmir. Every business community in Jammu has suffered losses in crores after 5th August because of the restrictions implemented by the centre government in Kashmir region. A three-day global investor’s summit which was announced in the state by the administration was also cancelled. The removal of special status has heightened tensions between Jammu and Kashmir and even between Leh and Kargil. 

The agenda to dissolve the special status of Jammu and Kashmir by the BJP was never a secret but an old promise. However, the sudden cancellation of special status has brought out consequences that were difficult to predict.  This all has also raised many questions over the Indian government in the international arena, in the shape of human rights violations done in Kashmir, by keeping people under restrictions for almost two months. Although the country celebrated the scrapping of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, the attempts to bring peace by denying basic human rights won’t win hearts. 30 years ago the Kashmir region went into self destruction mode with the onset of militancy which also created tussle between Kashmir and New Delhi. Now, the whole scenario appears to show that the situation in Jammu and Kashmir could be pushed into a more problematic zone if the situation in Kashmir doesn’t improve in the next few weeks. In the past 5 years, the issue of regional problems in Jammu and Kashmir has taken the shape of communal problems with all the efforts of political parties only for gaining politically. It has become a tough situation with new dimensions for the centre government and no one knows what awaits Jammu and Kashmir in future.

On A New Territory

Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) led union government has finally abrogated the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in the Indian constitution after getting the approval from the President of India on Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill 2019.  No one had ever imagined that such a thing would happen and that also in the most dramatic manner. Even though the Parliament witnessed heated exchange between the Union Home Minister and several leaders of the opposition, the bill got passed from both houses of the Parliament. BJP very cleverly got this bill passed in Rajya Sabha even when they don't enjoy majority in that house. The manner in which this was planned; nobody could have stopped the government from scrapping the special status and bifurcation of the state. 

The state now has been bifurcated into 2 Union Territory i.e. Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir and Union Territory of Ladakh which will come into existence on 31st October 2019. Although the long-standing demand of Ladakh for Union Territory is now fulfilled, people in Jammu feel that Union Territory for Jammu and Kashmir is a demotion under the constitutional status. Inspite of the fact that the Union government has stated that once the situation normalizes in Jammu and Kashmir, the statehood will be granted. Nevertheless in prevailing circumstances statehood for Jammu and Kashmir doesn’t appear near and I think this statement on statehood may give rise to another agitation in Jammu after some years.

The West Pakistani refugees, the members of the Valmiki community and Gorkhas in Jammu and Kashmir who were denied citizenship in the state because of Article 370 and 35A have now become permanent residents. In addition to it, now the children of the daughters of Jammu and Kashmir married outside the state with non-residents will have the rights to inherit their mothers properties located in Jammu and Kashmir. The Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir would be now governed directly by New Delhi and that also under the Indian constitution. In total, we can see that the BJP government has created history.  Despite the fact that Article 370 was never intended to be permanent, the way it has been changed has created doubt in the minds of some people of Jammu and Kashmir especially in Kashmir.  Ladakh too is clearly divided after removal of the special status because many people living in Kargil have started protesting against this decision. Revisiting the Indian constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir was not purely domestic and many international disputes with Pakistan and China could now fall flat. If something like that happens then it appears that Jammu and Kashmir will now get more internationalized once these countries start interfering in these areas. 

We all need to stay optimistic but also let’s not forget that implementation of the new situation on ground won’t be so easy in Kashmir. The central government has to reach out to people in Kashmir in a more effective manner or the country could witness a spike in violence and protests once people in Kashmir come out of the ongoing lock down. It is likely that a new wave of militancy can also emerge if only the pressure mechanism is applied in Kashmir. Presenting a new narrative for Jammu and Kashmir actually is not as easy as it is now being projected out of the Parliament. Article 370 was projected as a blot on history and was believed to have led to isolation of the state. At this moment, when this article is now part of the history still no one can assure whether normalcy will return to Jammu and Kashmir. 

On the other hand, if the issue of investment by the private sector was just related to militancy then why didn't the government invest in Kashmir on a large scale? The problem wasn’t just militancy but also lack of many other things like connectivity of road and train. So now onwards Jammu and Kashmir & Ladakh will surely witness new changes in the security dynamics. BJP has played its last hand on this issue and left all political parties in confusion and despair. The new political ramifications will rise and could bring out many problems which if not answered positively, will create bigger worry for long term. The country is at a crossroad because of the constitutional changes brought suddenly and it has left us all on a new territory.

Congress Needs Another Gandhi

Rahul Gandhi has made it clear that he will not be president of the Congress party.  This came as a result of the defeat in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and because of the statements of most of the political analysts that Congress, after this defeat, should be run by a non-Gandhi. Since then names of many junior and senior leaders are doing rounds as new president of the Congress party. No doubt that many senior leaders like Sushil Kumar Shinde and Mallikarjun Kharge have leadership abilities but in this situation the Congress party needs the services of another Gandhi to bring the party out of this political turmoil. The experiment of having a non-Gandhi Congress president has been tried in the past. And the results were hardly encouraging because Congress witnessed desertion of many leaders. The big leaders like Arjun Singh, ND Tiwari and Madhavrao Scindia formed parallel political wings against the Congress. If again a non Gandhi is appointed the president then the new entrant on the post will face a dual crisis. Firstly, he/she has to ensure that there is no desertion of big leaders from the party and secondly, to rebuild the party structure across the country.

 

Presently, Congress faces factionalism in most state units and with BJP being run by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the risk of losing more leaders to BJP is wide open. Adding to it is the reason that all the Congress leaders are just thinking of their own political survival. After the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, roles between BJP and Congress have reversed. BJP is ruling at the centre and 16 states across the country whereas Congress base has shrunk since 2014.  In such prevailing political circumstances, a non-Gandhi president can lead to further factionalism and desertion of many leaders from the party. In this case, Priyanka Gandhi appears to be the best option to ensure cohesiveness among the top leadership. In the general public also her perception is significantly better than Rahul’s image of being a reluctant politician.

 

After the death of J. Jayalalithaa , a powerful chief minister in Tamil Nadu, her party AIADMK lost political ground even after having a strong presence among masses .The AIADMK lost ground in absence of a leader who could act as a bond between party leaders and cadre. So what would happen to the Congress party which has already lost in most of India? The challenge for the Congress is to stop this rapid decline and only Gandhi can help resolve serious differences which are sure to rise as time passes. Now after two defeats of Congress in Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s objective to have a “Congress-mukt Bharat” is taking the shape of “Gandhi-mukt Congress”. With key assembly polls in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar over the next one year, the challenge for the Congress party is not just to put its house in order but also to stand up to a stronger BJP. The way things are going for the Congress, the party may soon enter an existential crisis. The death of the Congress from political circles would remove national opposition to BJP and that won’t be a good sign for the democracy and democratic institutions of the country. However, with the fall of the Congress, regional leaders and regional parties in Indian politics would make a comeback.

Desire For Assembly Elections

The president's rule has been extended in Jammu and Kashmir for another 6 months. This development has now furthered the uncertainty about the conduct of assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. In April this year, we all saw how the administration in the state showed its reluctance of holding assembly polls to the election commission of India in view of the upcoming tourist season and Amarnath yatra. The election commission also agreed to the plea put up by the administration and stated that the possibility of holding elections in the state would be explored only after the yatra is over. The questions are being raised over the intention of the administration in the state because Lok Sabha elections were conducted smoothly in Jammu and Kashmir. On one hand, the election commission is giving out signals that it will hold assembly elections in the state whereas on the other side the extension of the president rule forces us to think that the elections in the state are not near.

Moreover, if we go by this new extension the Narendra Modi led central government appears not in a mood to end the counter-insurgency operations in Kashmir. This could also be because of the presumption that if the political system is restored too soon, by formation of a new political government in the state, then Kashmir could again become the playground for the separatists. So security-wise, president’s rule suits the central government and the ideology of the BJP to uproot terrorism from the country. On the contrary, there are another segment of politicians who believe that the alienation of people of Kashmir could only be addressed by conducting the assembly elections as it would help to restore their confidence in the democratic process. 

Such leaders also add that; air strikes in Balakot have shown no effect on terrorists as they are continuing in their activities; these regular gunfights between security forces and terrorists shouldn’t be the sole reason for delaying the elections or else we fall in the trap of the script writers of this unrest. In total, they suggest that holding of early assembly elections is the only step to restore the peace in the entire state. But I believe while taking any step in that direction, we should not forget that after 2014, Kashmir has witnessed a massive upsurge in terrorism and result of it was that for the first time in the state polling on Anantnag lok sabha seat was held in three phases.

The whole political system in the state has witnessed a big change and all political parties are facing entirely new situations. I personally feel that the Kashmir based parties must be worried about the extension of the central rule in Jammu and Kashmir. This new extension must have reminded them of the President’s rule in the state from 1989 to 1996.  If I talk of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it appears that PDP has lost its political ground to the newly formed People’s United Front (which has already announced a pre-poll alliance in Kashmir). Of all the political parties in Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) appears to be in the best situation. The political circumstances seem quite favourable for NC after it emerged victorious on all the three Lok Sabha seats. In addition to it, these days NC leaders in Jammu are showing confidence of forming the next government in Jammu and Kashmir on its own.

Interestingly, all the Jammu based parties have lost ground because of the new political rhetoric built by BJP in Jammu region which was also reflected in lok sabha results. Strangely, BJP has turned silent on the agenda of assembly elections. This entirely shows that it first wants to settle the law and order problem before the assembly elections are held. The new strategy adopted by BJP helps it in Jammu region. After the defeat in the lok sabha polls, the Congress leaders in Jammu region are yet not visible and have a long list of problems before them in order to re-strategize their political move in the state. Amid this desire for assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the central government is busy trying to build a consensus on implementing the idea of ‘one nation - one election’. As far as our state is concerned, it will be interesting to see how the idea of ‘one nation - one election’ would be implemented here. I feel there will arise many technical issues which will come in the way of holding simultaneous elections.

Modi Returns

The lotus has bloomed once again in the country and it is the start of a new era in Indian politics. There were doubts about BJP’s performance but the results have proven that the image of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an administrator was intact within the voters. In spite of facing criticism from Hindu nationalist groups who were unhappy at the delay in building Ram temple and unemployment, as a problem in the country, Modi survived all these issues. Moreover, it was believed that the steps like demonetization and the GST could become hindrance in the return of the NDA government but this all proved wrong as the electorate in India had something else in their mind. No party or group of parties could match Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) on ground and the mandate is a clear victory for another 5 years. The parties like Congress and even ‘mahagathbandhan’ could not stop the prospects of the BJP from coming back to power. 

Let us accept that we are now living in a different India from the one that existed a decade ago. To talk of the Congress, 2019 has come as a big tragedy. Even after winning three states back from the BJP in December last year it failed to retain a foothold in the parliamentary elections. India, at one point of time, had seen Congress as a national force but BJP in past some years mastered the idea of nationalism. I still believe that the Congress has not lost this election all because of Rahul Gandhi. Although it is his political failure for the year 2019 and in politics we cannot rule out anyone so easily. In the past one year we have seen a new Rahul Gandhi who emerged more confident and reached out to the media to engage it on many issues. Interestingly, on the part of PM Modi this media interaction was completely missing for the five years. Basically, Congress failed to strike any alliances across the country and it even lost the ideological argument set by the BJP. Rahul Gandhi is facing the toughest political question of his life as it is not the Congress which was once led by Indira and Rajiv, who had mastered the idea of nationalism many decades back.

If we talk of Jammu and Kashmir then both the regions have once again shown a contrasting result. Jammu again has seen the saffron surge while the valley stood and faced the Modi wave by lending full support to the National Conference (NC). In fact, again every vote to the NC was a vote against the BJP as we witnessed in 2014 when Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) were trusted by voters in Kashmir. This time, both the PDP and Peoples Conference (PC) were seen as an offshoot of the BJP and voters considered NC as an only option to defend Kashmir’s distinct political identity. The time ahead is full of challenges for the NC as putting up the Kashmir issue in Parliament would be difficult when the narrative across the country is based on nationalism. On the other hand, in the state also the Congress party’s ‘tactical alliance’ failed and the assembly wise results on both the seats of Jammu region doesn’t show any good future for Congress.   These parliamentary polls have reflected the mind of voters in Jammu and Kashmir. After seeing all this, the results of the assembly elections appear very obvious to me. 

I believe that issues like nationalism worked for BJP across the country in 2019. Besides, the results have shown that people, especially youth, have shown their trust in PM Modi and his style of working. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his campaign has been demanding a ‘majboot sarkar’ and it seems the voters have put their stamp on his demand.  But from 2014 to 2019 there were many promises which were not fulfilled by the Modi government. So in those terms, I see that this success may also put a seed of failure if BJP doesn’t work on those promises which it ignored in the last five years. Narendra Modi has returned on a mandate which has come only in his name and he had to deliver this time all by himself.

Victory Of The State

The Lok sabha elections in Jammu region are over. All the three phases of lok sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir largely witnessed peaceful polling. During the polls the enthusiasm in Jammu region was very high among the voters and most of them were inclined to vote for a party which can save the future of this state. On the other hand, there was not much enthusiasm about these polls in the Kashmir region which got reflected in the voting percentage released by the election commission. Before these lok sabha elections were announced, there was a sentiment among the people as well as the politicians of the state that assembly elections in our state should be held along with upcoming lok sabha polls. But the election commission of India cited security reasons as a major constraint to conduct the assembly polls and the idea of simultaneous polls in Jammu and Kashmir was dropped. The state has been without a government since June 2018 after the coalition between BJP and PDP ended.  I personally feel that since then the alienation and anger within the regions, in absence of an elected government, has increased further.

Last week, news through the print media came into the public domain that the election observers who were appointed (for assembly polls) in Jammu and Kashmir by the election commission of India have submitted their report to the commission. It was further revealed that these observers have also submitted a suitable schedule for the polls to be conducted in Jammu and Kashmir. Ever since this news is out, once again a hope in the people as well as in the politicians (who are already in poll mode) of the state has risen. Although it is just a recommendation, if accepted it may help Jammu and Kashmir to get out of the political crisis which may happen if the current president rule in the state is further extended.  The recommendations made by the observers clearly show that the earlier cited security reasons to delay the assembly polls don’t exist now or have lessened and the situation is conducive for the polls. Moreover, when the schedule for the lok sabha is being followed peacefully then the assembly polls could also be held under the present conditions. Everyone would agree with me that although security requirements for the assembly elections are very important, in the past we have seen elections being held when more critical circumstances were prevailing in the state.

In addition to it, not holding the elections as per the constitutional requirements of the country can further create doubts among the people of Jammu and Kashmir especially in the Kashmir valley who already in one way or other feel alienated. And there are some international forces that may project such a decision as being anti Kashmir and help them to further create a negative impression in the minds of Kashmiri people. The assembly elections should be conducted immediately after the lok sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir because that would be in the best interest of the state and the country.  I simply state that not conducting the elections in Jammu and Kashmir just by taking the plea of the Pulwama attack is totally not right. Also if such conditions continue then it may show that the government has fallen in the trap of anti election forces which are operating in the state.

The news of the report submitted by the observer’s shows that there is also an inclination of the observers for conducting assembly polls in the state. It is now on the government to send a positive message on this matter so that there remain no such circumstances which may create hindrance in the polling process. Nothing else should be taken in view which may derail the poll process and to have a popular government which is elected by the people themselves.  It is totally in the interest of our state’s stability and strength that the political setup is re-established after the assembly elections. In absence of the government the parties are playing divisive politics and are showing their inclination only in their respective strongholds. Let the voters in the state decide who they want themselves to be governed by and in the end it only will be the victory of the state.

Tough War Of 2019

The so called festival of democracy i.e. parliamentary elections are about to start again from April 11th, 2019. The nation goes to polls in seven phases which are spread across the months of April and May but in Jammu and Kashmir, the general election will be held in five phases on April 11, 18, 23, 29 and May 6. The 2019 general election is a test for both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Congress President Rahul Gandhi and it will design the political future of both these politicians. Strangely, this time some media houses, even before the filing of nominations has started, are showing the polls/surveys of the results. As per my observation they are giving two forecasts, one that PM Modi will be back in 2019 and second that they are trying to play some role in it.

After the Pulwama fidayeen attack, the Modi government was entirely on back foot as it showed the government on a weak side. Later the air strikes on Balakot area in Pakistan and reaction to it by Pakistan brought the situation to the brink of war. Many loved this situation while sitting in front of their televisions but they all forgot what the people on borders have to go through in such tense situations. PM Modi's image became stronger after these air strikes and in addition he lost no time in raising the idea of nationalism across India. In his several rallies after these air strikes, he made numerous attempts to win people’s confidence. After all this, a heavy dose of nationalism was injected through different means. But this didn’t end here because after air strikes in Balakot many contrary views started coming out which challenged the actual damage caused by these air strikes. The suspicion grew further when the foreign media houses denied the big claims of damage and death toll made by the Indian politicians especially from BJP. After this everyone wanted to know the truth behind the Balakot strike and this made the commentary grow around it. The step was taken but what was its intensity remains unanswered and the BJP after the Pulwama attack very successfully took the narrative away from the issues opposition has been raising against it in the last 2-3 years. 

Pulwama attack has become the turning point of the election war of 2019. In this process we also saw posters across India of Wing Commander Abhinandan being put up in various cities. I feel using national pride as a tool of elections is seen for the first time in the country and BJP has used it in its favour in a strategic manner. The opposition looks helpless and has to discover new avenues to counter this new wave raised by the BJP.  While this all is going on, the Congress party is searching its identity within the new Mahagathbandhan politics by bringing in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. In my opinion, BJP this time will struggle to repeat its 2014 Lok Sabha performance importantly after the formation of Mahagathbandhan across the country against BJP. This also is signaled as Sonia Gandhi has chosen to contest again from Raebareli and has come out of her self-imposed retirement to try to keep the NDA out of power if situation arises. Presently, the BJP has the strongest resources but the Congress after winning Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh from BJP in 2018 still has a reason to stay positive.

Now as far as Lok Sabha polls in Jammu and Kashmir are concerned the Congress and National Conference (NC) have formed a new kind of ‘gathbandhan’ which will also see friendly contests within them. BJP will go through a testing time in Jammu as its old member Lal Singh is out on political turf as a rebel and is contesting on both Lok sabha seats of Jammu region. Nevertheless BJP doesn’t consider Lal Singh and his Dogra Swabhiman Sangthathan as a threat. Only results of both Jammu seats will tell what kind of political damage he caused. As far as assembly elections were concerned in Jammu and Kashmir it was expected from political parties that the election commission would conduct simultaneous polls in the state. Yet the election commission deferred the assembly elections and this step didn’t go well with the political parties and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti defined it as a threatening step in democracy. On the other hand, former CM Omar Abdullah described it as surrender to Pakistan and he even questioned Modi’s image of being a strong Prime Minister. After this all criticism on the crucial issue the government appointed three poll observers i.e. former IAS officer Noor Mohammad, former IPS officer A.S. Gill and former tourism secretary Vinod Zutshi to oversee the situation for elections in the state. After this step the latest reports are coming in which suggest that the decision of not holding elections to the state assembly could be reviewed soon. The poll fever is high everywhere and the people by now must have made up their minds to a large extent for the tough war of 2019 between rising Rahul and mighty Modi.

Political Slugfest In J&K

Only a few weeks are left for the parliamentary elections in the country. The state of Jammu and Kashmir may witness assembly polls along with the parliamentary elections or it may be held later. This whole situation has kept the political circles heated (inspite of the freezing winters) in the state as all the political parties are fully geared up for the upcoming election season. I feel that this political season could become part of the political history of the state, as unlike previous years, the ongoing political activities in the state are very different this time.

This all will seem right to you, if you noticed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a rally in Jammu on 3rd February 2019 appeared in a clear political mind. He also put forth many political promises at Vijaypur because the entire Jammu region is very important for the BJP and with this visit of the PM Modi, BJP has tried to set the motion for the party in the whole region. Although in 2014, the BJP reaped the dividends from Jammu by raising many issues but now after 5 years, the BJP has lost the face value in the minds of many voters as they have not been able to fulfill all the promises they made in 2014. The patriotic slogans earlier helped BJP but now people have much more expectations from them, as the main problem of regional imbalance could not be fully rectified even in the tenure of PM Modi. With elections around, BJP is now in a hurry to fulfill its earlier promises and for this BJP is trying to deliver justice on some issues to undo its wrongs. To start with, Ladakh region has been declared as a separate administrative and revenue division.  In addition to it, the reservation for people living on the International Border (IB) under the ALC quota has been approved because the major beneficiaries of this reservation are the people of Jammu, Samba and Kathua areas.

 While all the things we’re not going right for the BJP in the state, the political ground was favourable for the Congress party in the upcoming elections. However, in my last column I predicted that factionalism could be a big problem for Congress in the upcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir. And that prediction somewhere came out right when Ghulam Nabi Azad was sidelined in various poll panels announced for the general elections in the state by the party. Such was the negative impact of this announcement that Azad within a few hours disassociated himself from all the committees quoting his busy schedule at the national level. Since then within the Congress party an internal factionalism war has started here. It is very embarrassing for the Azad loyalists that their leader who has served as a CM in the state has been marginalized by another faction. Besides, in order to strengthen the Congress party in Kashmir, Congress brought in Tariq Hameed Karra from PDP but he too has been made irrelevant by the Kashmir based Congress leaders. He has not been given any important position vis a vis upcoming elections and now there are rumors that Karra is planning to shift back to PDP. If this becomes true then the political ground for Congress may turn bad in Kashmir and it will be left only to focus on Jammu and Ladakh where the party has seen some revival.

Amid all this, the situation seems totally complex yet beneficial for the National Conference (NC) in Kashmir since NC is eyeing a clear majority in the upcoming elections. NC this time might perform well in the upcoming elections because PDP has lost some political areas in the entire Kashmir region and is yet not able to settle with its internal problems which at times show that PDP is breaking. Mehbooba Mufti is also busy in a war of words with the governor Satyapal Malik when she accused the governor of implementing the BJP agenda by dividing the state on religious lines. The governor came in the line of fire of Mehbooba Mufti when he nullified the stamp duty exemption to women which was approved by the Mufti government. The governor claiming that he is also the CM too hasn’t gone well within the political circles of the state. Under all this, former CM Omar Abdullah has been stressing for an early assembly polls in the state and appears ready for elections as he has started making political promises like quashing the PSA, also granting division status to Pir Panjal and Chenab Valley in Jammu region. Under these circumstances, the rise of Sajjad Lone in Kashmir could be a big problem for the NC as he has been successful in grabbing leaders from all parties in Kashmir and appears to have backing of the central government too.

In the middle of all this political slugfest, the big question still remains is when will the elections be held and whether the state will have a single party rule or again the coalition arrangement will be seen in the state. I would like to add here that the role of divisive forces who are promoting sub-regionalism in the entire state is high. We witnessed it clearly, when recently a mass agitation in Kargil started against Leh and the parties took side of Kargil and Leh as per their political suitability. Besides, the GGM science college issue was also flared up by few with only pure political intentions. Interestingly, the latest factor promoting division within the state is the Pulwama incident which I feel was flared up by using the platform of Chamber of Commerce, Jammu. My message to the fellow citizens during these sensitive times is that we need to understand clearly as to what serves the state and what serves the political parties in the state.

Assembly Elections: Near Or Far

The state of Jammu and Kashmir has been without an elected government for more than seven months now. Although as per the rules the fresh polls in J&K have to be held six month after dissolution of the assembly yet there are four ideas that are making rounds in the political and social circles relating to fresh elections. Firstly, there are groups of politicians and people who want that assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir should be held prior to the upcoming parliament polls. Secondly, there are some who want that assembly elections in the state should be held along with parliament polls. Thirdly, there are a small number of people who support the idea that assembly elections should be conducted after the parliament polls by further extending the President’s rule after May 21, 2019. Fourthly, there are few others who want the polls to be pushed towards the end of this year. The reason behind all such different thought processes to hold fresh assembly elections in the state is because of the political convenience of each group.

But this all speculation may end soon as it is believed that a team of Election Commission of India (ECI) shall be visiting Jammu and Kashmir to take a final call on the timing of assembly polls. The ECI team will hold consultation with different political parties, officials from security establishment and state administration to decide on timing of the polls. The political (opposition) leaders in Jammu and Kashmir want that the popular government should be reinstated at the earliest. At the outset, I believe that the elections would help to restore the democracy which somewhere has shattered after the PDP- BJP coalition government failed and hence it may become a starting point to reduce the prevailing imbalance within regions. This in total will be amongst the greatest challenges before the new state government. Till now the Governor with a group of advisors is running this state but it is important that the political leadership should come forward to bring a solution to the prevailing problems of Jammu and Kashmir where the youth in particular is losing its belief in the whole system. 

Inspite of all these speculations about the timing of polls in the state, all the political parties are on toes as they fear that chances of simultaneous polls in Jammu and Kashmir along with the Lok Sabha polls are high. This thing also gained importance after the Governor Satya Pal Malik revealed that all political parties in the state, except for Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have expressed their support for holding polls simultaneously. Keeping this in mind the parties have started political meetings, announcements and promises in order to regain the faith of the voters. As elections appear near the National Conference (NC) led by Dr Farooq Abdullah has started with its main theme of autonomy and is promising to end regional disparities once NC is back in the government. Moreover, this time the NC has brought in a twist in their campaign by demanding absolute majority for NC and by highlighting how the coalition governments have failed in the state. But only time will tell how well these ideas go down with the voters.  If I talk of PDP then I think they are yet to get into political mode as its leadership crisis is not settling down. Although the PDP is the principal opponent of NC in Kashmir, its present situation doesn't give it any kind of benefit where it may pose any opposition to NC in the upcoming elections. Presently, the whole situation for the PDP is quite opposite from the days it was formed with a plan to bring self rule in Jammu and Kashmir. The upcoming elections this year would be the biggest test for the PDP in the whole state as it has reached a situation where it may lose its political ground to a very high level.

The political situation for the BJP is also not good because the BJP came into power by promising resolution of the Kashmir problem and for getting Jammu its due share in the power corridors. Besides, all the things have turned negative for BJP in the last some years because while promoting democratic process they became an ally of People's Conference (PC) led by Sajjad Lone (an heir of Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone). This step didn’t go well in the minds of Jammuites as they have developed a firm belief that BJP has shifted to a new strategy under which it considers its political survival a foremost issue and has forgotten all its promises which they made with the voters in Jammu region. Somewhere the situation in 2019 for BJP in Jammu is totally different from 2014 and keeping this in mind BJP has once again kept its hope only on Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is coming next month to Jammu and Kashmir with a main focus on Jammu and Ladakh regions. Finally if I talk of the Congress party in Jammu and Kashmir, it appears sure of its comeback because it’s main opponent in Jammu region i.e. BJP has lost its ground. Although local leaders of Congress appear confident of making a comeback, I think factionalism here might create a problem for the party as it will further increase when the time of ticket distribution comes. Another problem which could strike Congress here is that new and young faces will give fight to old and senior leaders who aren’t ready to leave the turf. Notably, with the building political atmosphere of the state the assembly elections appear near but if I go by the prevailing mood in the country it appears far.