Only a few weeks are left for the parliamentary elections in the country. The state of Jammu and Kashmir may witness assembly polls along with the parliamentary elections or it may be held later. This whole situation has kept the political circles heated (inspite of the freezing winters) in the state as all the political parties are fully geared up for the upcoming election season. I feel that this political season could become part of the political history of the state, as unlike previous years, the ongoing political activities in the state are very different this time.
This all will seem right to you, if you noticed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a rally in Jammu on 3rd February 2019 appeared in a clear political mind. He also put forth many political promises at Vijaypur because the entire Jammu region is very important for the BJP and with this visit of the PM Modi, BJP has tried to set the motion for the party in the whole region. Although in 2014, the BJP reaped the dividends from Jammu by raising many issues but now after 5 years, the BJP has lost the face value in the minds of many voters as they have not been able to fulfill all the promises they made in 2014. The patriotic slogans earlier helped BJP but now people have much more expectations from them, as the main problem of regional imbalance could not be fully rectified even in the tenure of PM Modi. With elections around, BJP is now in a hurry to fulfill its earlier promises and for this BJP is trying to deliver justice on some issues to undo its wrongs. To start with, Ladakh region has been declared as a separate administrative and revenue division. In addition to it, the reservation for people living on the International Border (IB) under the ALC quota has been approved because the major beneficiaries of this reservation are the people of Jammu, Samba and Kathua areas.
While all the things we’re not going right for the BJP in the state, the political ground was favourable for the Congress party in the upcoming elections. However, in my last column I predicted that factionalism could be a big problem for Congress in the upcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir. And that prediction somewhere came out right when Ghulam Nabi Azad was sidelined in various poll panels announced for the general elections in the state by the party. Such was the negative impact of this announcement that Azad within a few hours disassociated himself from all the committees quoting his busy schedule at the national level. Since then within the Congress party an internal factionalism war has started here. It is very embarrassing for the Azad loyalists that their leader who has served as a CM in the state has been marginalized by another faction. Besides, in order to strengthen the Congress party in Kashmir, Congress brought in Tariq Hameed Karra from PDP but he too has been made irrelevant by the Kashmir based Congress leaders. He has not been given any important position vis a vis upcoming elections and now there are rumors that Karra is planning to shift back to PDP. If this becomes true then the political ground for Congress may turn bad in Kashmir and it will be left only to focus on Jammu and Ladakh where the party has seen some revival.
Amid all this, the situation seems totally complex yet beneficial for the National Conference (NC) in Kashmir since NC is eyeing a clear majority in the upcoming elections. NC this time might perform well in the upcoming elections because PDP has lost some political areas in the entire Kashmir region and is yet not able to settle with its internal problems which at times show that PDP is breaking. Mehbooba Mufti is also busy in a war of words with the governor Satyapal Malik when she accused the governor of implementing the BJP agenda by dividing the state on religious lines. The governor came in the line of fire of Mehbooba Mufti when he nullified the stamp duty exemption to women which was approved by the Mufti government. The governor claiming that he is also the CM too hasn’t gone well within the political circles of the state. Under all this, former CM Omar Abdullah has been stressing for an early assembly polls in the state and appears ready for elections as he has started making political promises like quashing the PSA, also granting division status to Pir Panjal and Chenab Valley in Jammu region. Under these circumstances, the rise of Sajjad Lone in Kashmir could be a big problem for the NC as he has been successful in grabbing leaders from all parties in Kashmir and appears to have backing of the central government too.
In the middle of all this political slugfest, the big question still remains is when will the elections be held and whether the state will have a single party rule or again the coalition arrangement will be seen in the state. I would like to add here that the role of divisive forces who are promoting sub-regionalism in the entire state is high. We witnessed it clearly, when recently a mass agitation in Kargil started against Leh and the parties took side of Kargil and Leh as per their political suitability. Besides, the GGM science college issue was also flared up by few with only pure political intentions. Interestingly, the latest factor promoting division within the state is the Pulwama incident which I feel was flared up by using the platform of Chamber of Commerce, Jammu. My message to the fellow citizens during these sensitive times is that we need to understand clearly as to what serves the state and what serves the political parties in the state.
