Victory Of The State

The Lok sabha elections in Jammu region are over. All the three phases of lok sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir largely witnessed peaceful polling. During the polls the enthusiasm in Jammu region was very high among the voters and most of them were inclined to vote for a party which can save the future of this state. On the other hand, there was not much enthusiasm about these polls in the Kashmir region which got reflected in the voting percentage released by the election commission. Before these lok sabha elections were announced, there was a sentiment among the people as well as the politicians of the state that assembly elections in our state should be held along with upcoming lok sabha polls. But the election commission of India cited security reasons as a major constraint to conduct the assembly polls and the idea of simultaneous polls in Jammu and Kashmir was dropped. The state has been without a government since June 2018 after the coalition between BJP and PDP ended.  I personally feel that since then the alienation and anger within the regions, in absence of an elected government, has increased further.

Last week, news through the print media came into the public domain that the election observers who were appointed (for assembly polls) in Jammu and Kashmir by the election commission of India have submitted their report to the commission. It was further revealed that these observers have also submitted a suitable schedule for the polls to be conducted in Jammu and Kashmir. Ever since this news is out, once again a hope in the people as well as in the politicians (who are already in poll mode) of the state has risen. Although it is just a recommendation, if accepted it may help Jammu and Kashmir to get out of the political crisis which may happen if the current president rule in the state is further extended.  The recommendations made by the observers clearly show that the earlier cited security reasons to delay the assembly polls don’t exist now or have lessened and the situation is conducive for the polls. Moreover, when the schedule for the lok sabha is being followed peacefully then the assembly polls could also be held under the present conditions. Everyone would agree with me that although security requirements for the assembly elections are very important, in the past we have seen elections being held when more critical circumstances were prevailing in the state.

In addition to it, not holding the elections as per the constitutional requirements of the country can further create doubts among the people of Jammu and Kashmir especially in the Kashmir valley who already in one way or other feel alienated. And there are some international forces that may project such a decision as being anti Kashmir and help them to further create a negative impression in the minds of Kashmiri people. The assembly elections should be conducted immediately after the lok sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir because that would be in the best interest of the state and the country.  I simply state that not conducting the elections in Jammu and Kashmir just by taking the plea of the Pulwama attack is totally not right. Also if such conditions continue then it may show that the government has fallen in the trap of anti election forces which are operating in the state.

The news of the report submitted by the observer’s shows that there is also an inclination of the observers for conducting assembly polls in the state. It is now on the government to send a positive message on this matter so that there remain no such circumstances which may create hindrance in the polling process. Nothing else should be taken in view which may derail the poll process and to have a popular government which is elected by the people themselves.  It is totally in the interest of our state’s stability and strength that the political setup is re-established after the assembly elections. In absence of the government the parties are playing divisive politics and are showing their inclination only in their respective strongholds. Let the voters in the state decide who they want themselves to be governed by and in the end it only will be the victory of the state.

Tough War Of 2019

The so called festival of democracy i.e. parliamentary elections are about to start again from April 11th, 2019. The nation goes to polls in seven phases which are spread across the months of April and May but in Jammu and Kashmir, the general election will be held in five phases on April 11, 18, 23, 29 and May 6. The 2019 general election is a test for both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Congress President Rahul Gandhi and it will design the political future of both these politicians. Strangely, this time some media houses, even before the filing of nominations has started, are showing the polls/surveys of the results. As per my observation they are giving two forecasts, one that PM Modi will be back in 2019 and second that they are trying to play some role in it.

After the Pulwama fidayeen attack, the Modi government was entirely on back foot as it showed the government on a weak side. Later the air strikes on Balakot area in Pakistan and reaction to it by Pakistan brought the situation to the brink of war. Many loved this situation while sitting in front of their televisions but they all forgot what the people on borders have to go through in such tense situations. PM Modi's image became stronger after these air strikes and in addition he lost no time in raising the idea of nationalism across India. In his several rallies after these air strikes, he made numerous attempts to win people’s confidence. After all this, a heavy dose of nationalism was injected through different means. But this didn’t end here because after air strikes in Balakot many contrary views started coming out which challenged the actual damage caused by these air strikes. The suspicion grew further when the foreign media houses denied the big claims of damage and death toll made by the Indian politicians especially from BJP. After this everyone wanted to know the truth behind the Balakot strike and this made the commentary grow around it. The step was taken but what was its intensity remains unanswered and the BJP after the Pulwama attack very successfully took the narrative away from the issues opposition has been raising against it in the last 2-3 years. 

Pulwama attack has become the turning point of the election war of 2019. In this process we also saw posters across India of Wing Commander Abhinandan being put up in various cities. I feel using national pride as a tool of elections is seen for the first time in the country and BJP has used it in its favour in a strategic manner. The opposition looks helpless and has to discover new avenues to counter this new wave raised by the BJP.  While this all is going on, the Congress party is searching its identity within the new Mahagathbandhan politics by bringing in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. In my opinion, BJP this time will struggle to repeat its 2014 Lok Sabha performance importantly after the formation of Mahagathbandhan across the country against BJP. This also is signaled as Sonia Gandhi has chosen to contest again from Raebareli and has come out of her self-imposed retirement to try to keep the NDA out of power if situation arises. Presently, the BJP has the strongest resources but the Congress after winning Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh from BJP in 2018 still has a reason to stay positive.

Now as far as Lok Sabha polls in Jammu and Kashmir are concerned the Congress and National Conference (NC) have formed a new kind of ‘gathbandhan’ which will also see friendly contests within them. BJP will go through a testing time in Jammu as its old member Lal Singh is out on political turf as a rebel and is contesting on both Lok sabha seats of Jammu region. Nevertheless BJP doesn’t consider Lal Singh and his Dogra Swabhiman Sangthathan as a threat. Only results of both Jammu seats will tell what kind of political damage he caused. As far as assembly elections were concerned in Jammu and Kashmir it was expected from political parties that the election commission would conduct simultaneous polls in the state. Yet the election commission deferred the assembly elections and this step didn’t go well with the political parties and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti defined it as a threatening step in democracy. On the other hand, former CM Omar Abdullah described it as surrender to Pakistan and he even questioned Modi’s image of being a strong Prime Minister. After this all criticism on the crucial issue the government appointed three poll observers i.e. former IAS officer Noor Mohammad, former IPS officer A.S. Gill and former tourism secretary Vinod Zutshi to oversee the situation for elections in the state. After this step the latest reports are coming in which suggest that the decision of not holding elections to the state assembly could be reviewed soon. The poll fever is high everywhere and the people by now must have made up their minds to a large extent for the tough war of 2019 between rising Rahul and mighty Modi.