New Test Begins

Less than a week is left for Jammu and Kashmir to be split into two Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir & Ladakh under the J&K Reorganization Act.  This phase has begun with many unanswered questions which are leading to anxious moments and some kind of uncertainty in the minds of the people in Jammu and Kashmir.  Everyone is waiting for the 1st November and thinking as to what lies ahead and what Jammu and Kashmir will be like thereafter.

BJP always believed that by taking away the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, the people of the state would be brought closer to New Delhi. But many people, without having any political affiliation, in Jammu and Kashmir are unhappy with conversion of a state into a Union Territory (UT).  This new step completely reflects that for the restoration of normalcy in the state, a politically suitable measure was adopted by the BJP. This ‘politically suitable measure’ becomes more suspicious because of floating voices, within the political circles here, that there would be no assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir for at least next one year.  

Although the centre government is repeatedly stating that statehood would be restored as soon as normalcy returns. But this ‘normalcy’ clause points only towards Kashmir. BJP too has now made Jammu dependent on Kashmir with this ‘normalcy’ clause. In addition to it, this appears to be a new narrative set by the BJP government that the UT is the signal of abnormal times and it’s a road to normalcy. Surprisingly, what is a ‘normal’ remains unanswered. Is it end of the terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir or the complete change of mind of the people in Jammu and Kashmir? Let’s be honest that there are certain goals which may or may not be achieved by the administrative measures. For this, settling aspirations of people in democratic set up would be the only way forward. The answer to this lies in the conduct of assembly elections at the earliest.

However, for the BJP it won’t be easy because in their new political formula of Jammu and Kashmir stands the issue of delimitation.

Earlier, the mainstream political leaders in Jammu and Kashmir played an important role in settling aspirations of people but today, many of them are under detention. Moreover, things may worsen in the abs­­ence of mainstream political leaders of Jammu and Kashmir and then the central government won’t have any other political option. BJP has been trying to show that there would be some new leadership emerging from Jammu region because of the planned delimitation and the next CM would be from BJP. For me it’s like a bluff played by BJP with its cadre because if Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti agree to the new conditions set up by the central government in UT of Jammu and Kashmir, one of them could be the next CM again.

For the BJP led central government, a new test begins now in the UT of Jammu and Kashmir as they have to make everyone feel that the Kashmir valley is safe. Because Article 370 is gone it does not mean that people will start investing in the UT of Jammu and Kashmir only for patriotic reasons. Many challenges lie ahead and the biggest of them is to bring change in perception. In Kashmir, Article 370 was not just a number but Kashmiris took it as their identity and a defense mechanism for any attempt to bring demographic change in the state. After abrogation of Article 370, Jammu region seems to slip away from BJP as it stood at a shocking figure of 81 in just concluded Block development Council elections. 

Obviously, BJP has never imagined such results but the restrictions in Kashmir in past some months have crashed the economy of Jammu. It appears Sarpanches and Panches have read the pulse of people better than the BJP who are yet in celebratory mood post abrogation of Article 370. The BJP government has tried to change the internal parameters in Jammu and Kashmir but issues of unemployment and development are still closer to people. This reality could not be altered and issues like Samba toll plaza may further wedge the gap between BJP and people in Jammu region. Now onwards, we all taste a new democracy for which resetting has been done in haste. I hope all new solutions and schemes in future win the hearts and minds of people of the new UT.

New Dimensions

On 5th August, the central government scrapped the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcated the state into two Union Territories of J&K and Ladakh. The map of state would now be divided on October 31. While taking away the special status the centre government also took away the statehood. It didn’t end with this, what all has happened after that in Jammu and Kashmir is all new and it was never seen before ever. Initially in Jammu, the movement of people was restricted but people in Kashmir had the worst experience. Although Kashmir was accustomed to the blocking of communication but complete communication blockade was the latest move to curtail the anger of few against India. The measures like blocking telephone lines, cable TV and postal services reflected that the centre government had already done its homework on the apprehension that scrapping of special status might stir trouble. 

The move of the Narendra Modi led centre government on Article 370 has in a way become too controversial. The entire political leadership in Kashmir has been put under detention and some even taken to Agra in Uttar Pradesh. All political leaders are in jail including three former Chief Minister’s Farooq Abdullah, his son Omar Abdullah and PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti. The separatist’s Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and the IAS officer-turned-politician Shah Faesal too are in the same condition. No political voice is left to be heard or seen anywhere in Kashmir. The detention of Farooq Abdullah, a strong voice of Jammu and Kashmir in the country and outside, under PSA is like a new message with a warning to all political leaders under detention. This thing has furthered the debate that in near future PSA could be imposed on many more leaders who resist the detention in any way. Moreover, this step taken in Kashmir politics could bring a political vacuum like never-before which may shape new and grave dangers. It is yet not clear as to when the restrictions will be lifted completely and what would happen after that in Kashmir. 

One thing that has emerged very clearly is that Jammu region and Kashmir region are interdependent. The example of it is that after 5th August the tourists from Jammu have disappeared and it has resulted in huge loss to hoteliers, restaurant owners, transporters and the fruit traders from Jammu who have invested in Kashmir. Every business community in Jammu has suffered losses in crores after 5th August because of the restrictions implemented by the centre government in Kashmir region. A three-day global investor’s summit which was announced in the state by the administration was also cancelled. The removal of special status has heightened tensions between Jammu and Kashmir and even between Leh and Kargil. 

The agenda to dissolve the special status of Jammu and Kashmir by the BJP was never a secret but an old promise. However, the sudden cancellation of special status has brought out consequences that were difficult to predict.  This all has also raised many questions over the Indian government in the international arena, in the shape of human rights violations done in Kashmir, by keeping people under restrictions for almost two months. Although the country celebrated the scrapping of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, the attempts to bring peace by denying basic human rights won’t win hearts. 30 years ago the Kashmir region went into self destruction mode with the onset of militancy which also created tussle between Kashmir and New Delhi. Now, the whole scenario appears to show that the situation in Jammu and Kashmir could be pushed into a more problematic zone if the situation in Kashmir doesn’t improve in the next few weeks. In the past 5 years, the issue of regional problems in Jammu and Kashmir has taken the shape of communal problems with all the efforts of political parties only for gaining politically. It has become a tough situation with new dimensions for the centre government and no one knows what awaits Jammu and Kashmir in future.

On A New Territory

Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) led union government has finally abrogated the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in the Indian constitution after getting the approval from the President of India on Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill 2019.  No one had ever imagined that such a thing would happen and that also in the most dramatic manner. Even though the Parliament witnessed heated exchange between the Union Home Minister and several leaders of the opposition, the bill got passed from both houses of the Parliament. BJP very cleverly got this bill passed in Rajya Sabha even when they don't enjoy majority in that house. The manner in which this was planned; nobody could have stopped the government from scrapping the special status and bifurcation of the state. 

The state now has been bifurcated into 2 Union Territory i.e. Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir and Union Territory of Ladakh which will come into existence on 31st October 2019. Although the long-standing demand of Ladakh for Union Territory is now fulfilled, people in Jammu feel that Union Territory for Jammu and Kashmir is a demotion under the constitutional status. Inspite of the fact that the Union government has stated that once the situation normalizes in Jammu and Kashmir, the statehood will be granted. Nevertheless in prevailing circumstances statehood for Jammu and Kashmir doesn’t appear near and I think this statement on statehood may give rise to another agitation in Jammu after some years.

The West Pakistani refugees, the members of the Valmiki community and Gorkhas in Jammu and Kashmir who were denied citizenship in the state because of Article 370 and 35A have now become permanent residents. In addition to it, now the children of the daughters of Jammu and Kashmir married outside the state with non-residents will have the rights to inherit their mothers properties located in Jammu and Kashmir. The Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir would be now governed directly by New Delhi and that also under the Indian constitution. In total, we can see that the BJP government has created history.  Despite the fact that Article 370 was never intended to be permanent, the way it has been changed has created doubt in the minds of some people of Jammu and Kashmir especially in Kashmir.  Ladakh too is clearly divided after removal of the special status because many people living in Kargil have started protesting against this decision. Revisiting the Indian constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir was not purely domestic and many international disputes with Pakistan and China could now fall flat. If something like that happens then it appears that Jammu and Kashmir will now get more internationalized once these countries start interfering in these areas. 

We all need to stay optimistic but also let’s not forget that implementation of the new situation on ground won’t be so easy in Kashmir. The central government has to reach out to people in Kashmir in a more effective manner or the country could witness a spike in violence and protests once people in Kashmir come out of the ongoing lock down. It is likely that a new wave of militancy can also emerge if only the pressure mechanism is applied in Kashmir. Presenting a new narrative for Jammu and Kashmir actually is not as easy as it is now being projected out of the Parliament. Article 370 was projected as a blot on history and was believed to have led to isolation of the state. At this moment, when this article is now part of the history still no one can assure whether normalcy will return to Jammu and Kashmir. 

On the other hand, if the issue of investment by the private sector was just related to militancy then why didn't the government invest in Kashmir on a large scale? The problem wasn’t just militancy but also lack of many other things like connectivity of road and train. So now onwards Jammu and Kashmir & Ladakh will surely witness new changes in the security dynamics. BJP has played its last hand on this issue and left all political parties in confusion and despair. The new political ramifications will rise and could bring out many problems which if not answered positively, will create bigger worry for long term. The country is at a crossroad because of the constitutional changes brought suddenly and it has left us all on a new territory.