The political environment in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has always been complex. Political developments following the 2024 J&K assembly elections have pushed down the Congress party in the alliance structure with the National Conference (NC). This sidelining is reflected in Congress’s choice to extend outside support instead of joining the NC-led government due to its electoral shortcomings and conflicting priorities after the election results. The NC and Congress have a history of working together in J&K, particularly during the coalition government from 2009 to 2014 led by Omar Abdullah. In the 2024 assembly elections, both parties ran as pre-poll allies under the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) banner.
NC secured 42 seats predominantly in the Kashmir valley, while Congress managed only six, five from Kashmir and one from the Pir Panjal region. Congress’s inability to capture seats in the Jammu plains marked a significant political setback. With 43 seats in the Jammu region, Jammu became a stronghold for the BJP, as local Congress leaders failed to secure victory in important constituencies, revealing its flaws during ticket distribution. Congress's high command and their appointed observers relied on unsuccessful leaders to make electoral strategies despite their past electoral losses. These local leaders were out again with arrogance and high-handedness during election days and further dented the credibility of the party.
Additionally, the NC’s strong results in the Kashmir valley further tilted the dynamics. After these losses, some Jammu Congress leaders were more worried about ensuring that the party's rebel leader (who won as an independent candidate) was not given any significant portfolio in the cabinet. This also led to a crucial disagreement regarding the distribution of ministerial roles with the NC. In turn, NC proposed one cabinet position, which Congress considered insufficient, causing it to withdraw and opt to support the government from the outside. This highlighted Congress’s diminished standing as the NC moved forward to establish the government without Congress’s direct involvement.
Principally, the formation of the alliance was built on a flawed foundation as the NC and Congress hold different perspectives on crucial issues like restoring statehood and reinstating Article 370. The NC emphasizes both as vital, while Congress supports restoring statehood, and it hesitates to advocate for the reinstatement of Article 370. This became apparent when Congress leaders did not back the NC’s Article 370 resolution in the J&K assembly. Both parties publicly downplay any discord; however, reports of internal friction have emerged, with Congress expressing discontent over the NC’s decisions, including appointing a Deputy Speaker from the BJP.
Some J&K Congress leaders favor splitting from the alliance in J&K. This sentiment highlights frustration with the NC’s dominance. J&K Congress in-charge Nasir Hussain’s recent meeting with Omar Abdullah suggests efforts to restore relations, as Congress’s marginalization impacts the political landscape in J&K. First, it could further empower the BJP in the Jammu region. Second, without Congress’s ability to influence policy decisions, this is affecting its voters and supporters. Third, for the NC, Congress’s non-involvement helps in building its cadre in the Jammu region, which aims to repair regional divisions and represent secular interests. Congress’s future in J&K politics revolves around its ability to rebuild organizational strength. Due to Congress's fading appeal in Jammu, workers are searching for answers to the question: Who is to blame? The delicate nature of the coalition, along with Congress not being in a favorable position, necessitates rethinking, as merely opposing the BJP in Jammu will continue to backfire.
